***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 15.0 15.4 18.5 -0.6 37.4 39.8 15.2 16.0 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.1 15.5 18.9 -0.3 45.0 45.9 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.3 17.2 18.4 -0.6 37.3 40.2 16.9 17.9 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 12.1 12.0 16.3 -1.2 26.2 31.3 12.5 13.7 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 12.9 13.0 16.1 -1.0 30.3 35.3 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 12.0 12.0 14.6 -1.1 25.5 31.6 12.4 13.0 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.5 15.9 19.1 -0.2 45.7 46.3 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 7.7 7.8 14.3 -1.0 28.4 33.9 8.0 8.9 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 14.4 14.6 16.3 -0.9 32.3 36.8 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 14.2 14.3 14.8 -0.9 31.1 36.2 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 13.9 14.1 15.9 -0.8 33.1 37.9 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 12.2 12.3 15.4 -0.9 29.9 35.0 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 13.3 13.4 15.0 -0.9 29.4 34.6 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 15.0 15.3 16.5 -0.7 35.3 39.7 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 15.5 15.5 17.0 -1.3 24.9 29.3 15.9 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 14.5 14.5 15.7 -0.9 30.0 35.3 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.6 18.6 -0.1 47.7 47.9 15.9 16.7 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 12.5 12.7 14.1 -0.8 31.4 36.6 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.1 15.5 18.7 -0.3 43.3 44.7 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 8.6 8.6 12.5 -1.1 26.9 33.3 8.9 9.6 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 14.2 14.4 17.4 -0.9 32.4 36.6 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.1 18.2 -0.3 43.6 45.0 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.5 14.7 18.2 -0.5 40.1 42.7 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 14.7 15.0 16.2 -0.7 34.1 38.4 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 13.9 14.2 16.7 -0.9 32.0 35.7 14.3 15.3 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 13.4 13.3 14.9 -1.1 25.7 31.1 13.7 14.3 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 14.0 14.5 17.7 -0.7 36.7 39.3 14.3 15.4 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 13.0 12.9 16.7 -1.3 24.4 29.6 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 11.7 11.9 13.6 -0.9 30.6 36.2 12.1 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.5 15.8 19.0 -0.4 43.0 44.3 15.2 16.1 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------