***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 14.7 15.1 18.5 -0.6 36.5 39.6 15.0 15.8 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 14.8 15.6 19.0 -0.3 44.6 44.9 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 17.0 17.4 18.5 -0.6 36.9 39.5 17.2 18.1 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 12.2 12.4 16.4 -1.1 27.2 31.1 12.7 13.7 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 13.2 13.4 16.2 -1.0 29.8 33.6 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 12.5 12.6 14.9 -0.9 29.5 33.9 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 15.2 16.0 19.1 -0.3 44.7 45.2 15.5 16.3 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 7.9 8.1 14.4 -0.9 29.1 33.5 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 14.6 14.8 16.3 -0.9 29.2 33.5 14.9 15.7 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 14.5 14.7 14.8 -0.9 29.0 33.6 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 14.2 14.5 16.0 -0.8 33.1 36.2 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 12.3 12.5 15.5 -0.9 29.9 33.9 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 13.5 13.5 15.0 -0.9 28.9 33.0 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 15.2 15.4 16.4 -0.8 31.9 35.7 15.5 16.2 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 15.9 15.8 17.1 -1.2 25.3 29.5 16.2 17.0 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 14.8 14.9 15.9 -0.9 30.6 34.4 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 15.7 16.5 18.5 -0.2 46.0 45.6 15.9 16.7 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 12.7 12.8 14.1 -0.9 29.2 34.1 13.0 13.9 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 15.1 15.7 18.8 -0.3 42.7 43.5 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 8.9 9.1 12.7 -0.8 30.5 35.1 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 14.5 14.7 17.4 -0.9 30.1 34.2 14.8 15.6 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 14.6 15.3 18.3 -0.3 42.9 43.2 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 14.4 14.9 18.2 -0.5 38.3 40.3 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 15.0 15.3 16.2 -0.8 31.4 35.5 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 14.4 14.6 16.7 -1.0 29.4 33.5 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 13.5 13.5 15.0 -1.1 25.8 29.9 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 14.2 14.6 17.6 -0.7 34.3 37.7 14.5 15.6 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 13.5 13.5 16.9 -1.1 26.3 30.5 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 12.1 12.3 13.6 -0.8 30.9 35.6 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 15.2 15.9 19.1 -0.3 43.0 44.1 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------