***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.7 18.8 0.0 49.8 49.6 15.1 15.7 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 15.7 15.9 19.1 0.3 59.3 57.5 14.9 15.5 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.9 17.6 18.7 0.0 49.4 49.3 17.1 17.6 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 12.4 12.5 16.5 -0.6 31.0 34.0 12.6 13.1 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 13.3 13.7 16.5 -0.4 38.1 40.1 13.5 14.1 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.2 12.7 14.9 -0.4 37.2 39.8 12.6 13.0 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.2 19.2 0.3 58.4 56.9 15.4 15.9 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.0 8.2 14.5 -0.3 38.1 40.2 8.1 8.6 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 14.6 15.1 16.8 -0.3 40.8 42.4 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 14.6 14.9 15.1 -0.3 40.8 42.5 14.7 15.2 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.8 16.2 -0.2 44.4 45.3 14.4 15.0 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.8 15.6 -0.3 41.2 42.7 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.9 15.3 -0.3 39.2 41.2 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.8 16.7 -0.2 44.7 45.7 15.4 15.9 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 15.9 15.9 17.3 -0.8 26.2 29.6 16.1 16.6 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.2 16.0 -0.3 40.0 41.7 15.0 15.5 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.8 18.7 0.4 62.9 60.1 15.9 16.4 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.8 13.3 14.3 -0.2 41.5 43.3 12.9 13.6 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.8 18.9 0.2 57.0 55.5 15.1 15.6 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.1 12.6 -0.4 37.1 39.6 9.0 9.5 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 14.5 14.9 17.8 -0.3 41.0 42.6 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.5 18.5 0.2 56.3 54.7 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.1 18.4 0.1 51.9 51.3 14.5 15.0 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.5 16.5 -0.2 44.3 45.3 15.1 15.7 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 14.5 14.9 17.1 -0.3 41.4 43.0 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 13.6 13.7 15.0 -0.5 31.8 34.3 13.7 14.2 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.1 17.9 -0.1 47.7 48.1 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 13.5 13.5 16.9 -0.7 28.2 31.4 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.5 13.8 -0.2 42.1 43.8 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.1 19.2 0.2 56.1 54.9 15.3 15.9 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------