***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 27.2 27.1 28.9 -1.8 25.5 32.1 27.8 29.1 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 27.2 27.9 29.6 -1.0 35.3 40.4 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 27.2 27.1 29.0 -1.7 27.1 33.9 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 20.3 19.7 27.0 -2.5 16.6 23.4 21.4 22.8 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 27.5 27.0 27.0 -2.2 20.1 27.0 28.3 29.8 31.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 26.4 26.0 24.8 -2.1 18.7 25.4 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 27.0 27.6 29.5 -1.0 35.5 40.5 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 16.3 15.9 25.4 -2.0 21.6 28.5 16.9 18.1 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 27.2 26.8 27.2 -2.1 22.1 29.2 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 27.1 26.6 25.9 -2.0 22.1 29.2 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 27.2 27.0 26.7 -2.0 22.8 29.2 28.0 29.4 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 26.5 26.2 26.5 -2.0 22.4 28.7 27.2 28.7 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 27.7 27.2 25.9 -2.2 19.6 26.1 28.5 29.8 31.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 26.9 26.9 26.9 -1.6 27.7 34.9 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 28.2 27.6 27.6 -2.4 15.9 22.5 29.2 30.4 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 28.1 27.8 26.5 -2.1 20.0 26.5 29.1 30.5 31.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 26.7 27.5 29.3 -0.8 38.6 42.7 27.1 28.4 29.6 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 26.4 26.1 25.0 -2.0 22.7 30.3 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 26.7 27.3 29.4 -1.2 33.8 39.4 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 22.4 21.8 23.0 -2.1 20.3 28.2 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 27.4 27.0 28.1 -2.1 22.2 29.3 27.9 29.3 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 27.1 27.6 29.0 -1.1 34.8 39.9 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 26.9 27.3 28.9 -1.3 31.4 37.7 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 26.6 26.5 26.8 -1.8 25.2 32.6 27.2 28.6 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 27.2 26.7 27.1 -2.2 20.4 27.1 28.0 29.4 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 27.2 26.6 26.0 -2.3 17.2 24.3 28.1 29.5 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 26.9 26.7 28.0 -1.8 24.6 31.2 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 28.2 27.6 27.3 -2.5 16.0 22.8 29.1 30.3 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 21.7 21.5 24.0 -1.9 22.8 30.3 22.4 23.7 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 27.0 27.4 29.5 -1.2 32.6 38.3 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------