***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 29.1 28.4 29.3 -0.6 38.0 39.6 28.2 28.8 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 29.0 28.9 30.0 0.2 53.3 52.4 28.1 28.8 29.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 29.1 28.3 29.5 -0.5 40.0 41.2 27.9 28.7 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 20.7 20.6 27.3 -1.4 21.3 24.4 21.2 22.0 22.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 28.1 28.2 27.5 -1.1 27.8 30.4 28.4 29.3 30.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 26.7 26.6 25.0 -1.3 21.8 25.0 27.2 28.0 28.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 28.8 28.8 29.9 0.1 52.7 52.0 27.9 28.6 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 16.2 16.2 25.6 -1.0 27.8 30.5 16.5 17.2 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 27.7 27.9 27.8 -0.9 30.8 33.1 28.0 28.8 29.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 27.4 27.6 26.3 -1.0 29.8 32.3 27.7 28.6 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 27.7 27.9 27.1 -0.9 31.2 33.4 28.0 28.9 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 27.0 27.1 26.8 -1.0 29.5 31.8 27.3 28.1 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 28.0 28.0 26.3 -1.2 25.1 27.9 28.4 29.2 30.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 27.6 28.0 27.4 -0.6 38.1 39.3 27.7 28.5 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 28.7 28.4 28.1 -1.5 19.1 22.6 29.1 29.9 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 28.7 28.7 26.9 -1.1 26.6 29.2 29.1 29.9 30.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 28.5 28.6 29.8 0.4 57.5 55.7 27.6 28.3 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 26.6 26.8 25.4 -0.9 30.6 33.1 26.9 27.7 28.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 28.5 28.3 29.9 0.0 50.7 50.1 27.6 28.3 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 22.3 22.4 23.3 -1.0 27.3 30.3 22.7 23.5 24.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 27.7 27.9 28.7 -0.9 31.1 33.4 28.0 28.8 29.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 28.9 28.7 29.3 0.0 50.5 49.6 28.0 28.7 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 28.7 28.3 29.3 -0.2 45.6 45.7 27.7 28.4 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 27.2 27.5 27.3 -0.7 35.0 36.9 27.4 28.2 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 27.9 28.0 27.7 -1.0 28.7 31.4 28.2 29.1 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 27.6 27.5 26.2 -1.3 21.0 24.1 28.1 28.9 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 27.6 27.9 28.5 -0.6 36.4 38.3 27.8 28.5 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 28.7 28.5 27.6 -1.5 19.5 22.8 29.2 29.9 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 21.9 22.1 24.4 -0.9 30.2 32.8 22.3 23.0 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 28.8 28.5 30.0 -0.1 48.8 48.7 27.8 28.6 29.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------