***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 10.7 15.1 15.7 108.7 67.2 56.5 3.1 7.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.2 11.1 15.4 102.6 64.6 52.1 3.2 6.6 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.8 19.9 17.2 117.4 69.7 58.7 4.0 9.4 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 21.3 22.9 17.9 127.7 72.4 59.2 4.2 9.6 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 22.3 24.9 18.6 133.1 73.7 62.0 5.6 11.1 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 21.4 30.4 23.1 168.3 80.6 68.2 5.0 10.0 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.8 11.7 15.6 104.3 64.7 52.3 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 31.0 40.2 22.2 150.5 77.6 66.1 9.1 17.0 28.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 21.9 23.7 19.2 134.2 74.0 62.1 4.4 9.8 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 27.4 33.1 23.0 141.9 75.8 64.1 7.3 14.3 24.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 19.4 23.4 17.6 142.5 75.9 63.3 5.0 9.9 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 21.4 26.5 16.8 146.9 76.9 64.5 5.9 11.4 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 15.2 18.4 17.4 141.2 75.6 63.8 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.2 25.9 22.9 128.0 72.3 58.9 6.7 12.7 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 7.5 13.4 16.3 134.0 74.1 60.1 2.5 5.4 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 17.1 19.9 16.9 138.6 75.1 63.4 6.2 10.3 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.5 8.5 16.6 115.9 68.8 53.8 2.8 5.0 7.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 23.0 27.2 25.2 137.5 74.8 63.8 7.6 13.5 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.3 15.8 15.8 102.7 64.8 52.6 4.6 9.6 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 21.8 26.9 24.6 145.5 76.5 66.1 7.0 12.4 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 19.8 20.3 17.6 122.8 71.1 59.4 4.3 9.3 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.5 18.4 16.5 112.8 67.8 51.8 4.9 10.0 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.9 14.8 17.3 107.3 66.4 54.0 4.3 8.5 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 21.6 24.1 22.4 132.2 73.5 62.0 5.6 11.1 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.6 16.6 18.6 108.3 66.5 56.6 4.0 9.0 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 12.3 15.6 16.5 155.1 78.4 65.9 3.9 6.8 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.7 16.8 18.2 106.3 65.9 56.6 4.3 9.2 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.0 18.3 16.9 132.6 73.7 60.4 3.9 8.0 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 30.1 34.1 24.9 137.4 74.7 63.4 12.1 19.1 27.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.4 14.3 15.6 104.3 65.1 53.1 3.6 7.9 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------