***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.5 26.3 11.1 200.1 84.9 56.4 3.9 8.0 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.9 16.5 9.6 124.1 72.1 55.4 4.4 8.1 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.3 11.5 9.3 129.2 73.4 53.3 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.1 22.0 8.6 146.3 76.7 53.9 3.5 7.8 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.9 15.1 8.2 120.5 71.4 52.3 3.6 7.2 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.9 14.5 14.2 122.6 72.0 57.7 2.6 6.0 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.5 12.9 10.1 130.2 73.5 54.7 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 15.5 21.8 11.5 116.9 70.4 53.5 5.7 11.3 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.8 12.0 9.0 114.7 70.3 51.0 3.8 6.8 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.6 13.1 11.6 105.6 68.1 52.0 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.9 10.4 6.6 100.3 66.3 48.5 2.4 5.5 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.0 16.3 7.5 113.2 69.3 52.1 3.2 7.5 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.2 10.4 10.1 124.9 72.3 58.9 1.6 4.0 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.5 20.4 13.4 136.4 75.0 56.0 3.8 8.3 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.6 12.2 9.0 151.4 77.5 54.7 2.4 4.7 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 1.7 7.7 8.1 122.3 71.6 56.3 1.4 3.2 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.8 14.4 9.3 115.5 69.9 51.9 4.6 8.1 12.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.8 15.1 16.5 120.4 71.5 57.8 3.9 7.6 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.5 15.3 9.3 121.8 71.9 54.6 4.5 8.0 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.0 15.3 18.6 139.5 75.3 60.9 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.6 11.9 8.5 145.6 76.4 51.6 3.4 5.9 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.3 13.4 9.7 123.0 71.9 54.6 4.1 7.2 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.4 11.7 9.2 118.0 71.2 51.5 3.5 6.4 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.1 14.7 13.3 121.6 71.9 56.8 4.6 7.9 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.5 20.3 12.8 179.5 82.2 61.6 3.8 7.3 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 10.6 12.3 8.1 139.2 75.2 59.3 2.2 4.9 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.6 33.1 13.7 188.7 83.4 60.2 3.7 8.4 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.3 15.8 8.2 137.4 75.0 52.3 3.1 6.5 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 12.0 19.9 18.4 131.7 73.9 59.2 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.5 14.9 9.7 131.4 73.9 55.3 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------