***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.2 49.9 11.0 239.4 89.7 53.3 3.5 8.6 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.8 19.8 11.3 170.2 80.9 53.2 2.6 5.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.8 31.6 11.4 189.3 84.0 52.6 3.5 8.1 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 22.5 42.2 13.1 226.9 87.8 60.0 4.3 9.5 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 14.8 25.7 13.4 213.6 86.1 60.3 2.6 5.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 20.2 31.7 16.9 188.7 83.3 61.7 4.3 9.2 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.6 23.6 11.6 172.0 81.3 53.4 3.6 7.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 23.5 36.1 17.3 189.6 83.4 59.5 4.7 10.2 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 15.5 25.9 13.7 193.6 83.8 58.1 2.6 6.1 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 22.5 34.6 17.7 186.3 82.9 59.2 4.8 10.3 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 13.7 25.7 12.7 224.7 87.2 60.0 2.6 5.8 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 18.2 30.5 12.2 200.3 84.6 57.8 3.3 7.6 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 13.1 21.4 13.5 205.1 85.4 60.3 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 4.6 37.9 15.9 180.2 82.9 53.8 4.0 9.7 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 14.2 28.0 11.5 233.2 88.1 58.7 2.9 6.2 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 12.0 20.8 12.3 229.5 87.7 62.0 3.2 6.0 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.4 22.6 10.8 145.6 76.6 53.4 4.0 8.5 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.0 29.7 20.5 170.6 80.9 59.1 4.8 9.8 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.3 30.6 11.0 168.3 80.6 52.3 3.9 9.0 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 14.6 22.4 22.7 180.8 82.4 61.5 3.4 7.1 12.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.9 31.4 11.6 210.0 86.1 54.6 3.8 8.2 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 5.2 24.1 10.2 137.0 74.8 53.0 5.1 10.3 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 3.3 24.3 11.4 172.9 81.5 51.0 3.3 7.3 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.4 32.5 16.3 174.5 81.8 55.4 3.6 8.6 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.5 39.9 14.6 225.4 88.5 57.7 3.6 8.5 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 16.7 33.2 11.1 239.1 88.8 60.6 3.8 7.9 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.2 35.8 13.7 233.8 89.4 55.6 3.5 7.7 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 18.9 34.9 12.1 236.0 88.3 59.5 4.5 8.9 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 17.4 38.6 21.2 172.0 81.2 59.7 5.4 11.9 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 4.0 27.9 11.4 184.2 83.2 52.5 4.1 8.5 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------