***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 74.5 90.9 44.3 147.6 78.0 64.6 26.5 43.9 66.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 50.3 59.9 41.9 117.1 67.8 56.2 29.7 42.5 57.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 67.4 73.1 44.3 131.4 73.1 62.3 29.8 44.5 62.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 77.5 93.4 45.4 149.8 78.5 64.9 33.8 50.6 71.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 68.6 77.9 47.2 144.9 77.0 65.4 28.9 43.2 61.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 72.2 84.9 64.6 154.5 79.8 69.8 28.5 43.6 61.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 23.1 56.4 42.9 120.0 69.2 56.6 23.7 36.5 52.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 105.0 117.8 62.0 148.8 78.3 67.8 48.7 69.0 92.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 67.7 76.2 50.1 141.4 75.9 64.7 27.5 42.2 60.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 86.2 94.9 63.4 141.7 76.2 65.3 39.9 57.4 77.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 65.0 75.3 43.5 146.1 77.2 66.1 21.7 36.6 55.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 77.0 91.1 44.5 150.3 78.4 68.0 23.8 41.3 64.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 55.5 64.1 49.2 152.1 79.2 69.1 21.3 32.7 46.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 71.6 100.2 62.6 140.5 76.1 62.8 43.9 61.9 82.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 32.6 60.2 41.3 156.4 80.0 64.7 15.7 26.6 40.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 52.8 61.7 43.4 150.3 78.5 68.4 19.5 30.9 45.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 29.1 59.9 42.8 118.2 68.4 55.8 29.1 41.9 57.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 83.3 93.0 75.6 139.9 76.0 65.0 41.0 57.7 77.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 58.8 70.3 41.8 116.7 67.7 56.7 35.3 50.0 68.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 67.4 74.9 79.7 145.0 77.9 67.9 37.5 49.1 62.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 66.3 75.7 44.6 142.7 76.3 64.4 28.5 42.7 60.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 35.7 67.5 43.6 118.6 68.6 56.4 36.8 49.8 64.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 52.7 63.0 44.2 119.9 69.0 57.6 33.5 45.9 59.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 74.0 83.6 62.0 137.5 75.1 63.6 36.2 52.0 70.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 54.1 83.1 52.9 143.1 77.2 63.8 30.8 46.3 65.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 54.2 68.3 42.1 166.2 81.8 71.9 20.9 32.4 46.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 75.6 92.6 52.9 144.0 77.5 64.1 29.3 47.2 69.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 60.9 76.0 42.5 153.4 79.2 65.6 26.4 40.1 56.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 100.4 111.4 78.0 141.3 76.6 65.7 59.8 76.5 95.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 51.9 65.4 42.5 122.6 70.2 58.4 29.2 43.3 60.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------