***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 91 9 100 9999.0 15.4 17.8 -0.2 45.6 45.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 15.2 15.0 17.9 0.0 50.7 50.8 14.0 15.0 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 17.1 16.9 17.9 -0.1 48.5 48.6 16.1 17.0 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 11.1 11.3 15.5 -0.7 34.0 35.0 11.3 12.2 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 12.8 13.0 15.6 -0.7 34.5 35.6 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.0 13.5 -0.6 35.1 36.0 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 15.5 15.4 18.1 0.1 51.5 51.5 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 8.0 7.5 13.6 -0.4 41.6 42.1 7.1 7.8 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 15.2 14.6 16.3 -0.4 40.9 41.6 14.2 15.0 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 15.0 14.7 14.6 -0.2 45.0 45.4 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 14.9 14.2 15.3 -0.5 39.6 40.3 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 12.8 12.1 14.3 -0.5 39.4 40.2 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 14.2 13.6 14.4 -0.3 41.6 42.2 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 15.8 15.5 16.2 -0.2 46.5 46.9 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.7 15.7 17.2 -0.7 34.2 35.1 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 15.5 14.6 15.0 -0.5 38.5 39.3 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 15.9 16.0 17.8 0.2 55.0 54.9 14.8 15.7 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 13.3 13.2 13.8 0.0 50.2 50.4 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 15.2 15.1 17.8 0.0 49.6 49.7 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 91 9 100 9.3 9.2 11.7 0.0 50.6 50.7 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 15.0 14.3 17.2 -0.5 39.7 40.3 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 15.1 15.0 17.7 0.1 52.2 52.2 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 14.7 14.4 17.5 -0.1 47.4 47.6 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 15.5 15.2 16.0 -0.1 47.7 48.1 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.0 16.4 -0.7 33.9 34.9 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 12.6 12.7 13.3 -0.9 28.2 29.5 13.0 13.7 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 14.9 14.1 17.0 -0.4 41.4 42.1 13.6 14.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 13.0 13.1 16.2 -0.8 32.5 33.6 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 12.1 12.2 13.3 0.2 54.8 54.7 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 91 9 100 15.5 15.3 18.1 0.0 49.2 49.2 14.4 15.4 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------