***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 16.7 18.4 -0.2 45.5 46.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 15.7 15.4 18.6 0.0 50.6 51.0 14.4 15.4 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 18.0 17.6 18.4 0.0 49.4 49.9 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 11.6 11.6 16.2 -0.9 30.0 33.4 11.9 13.1 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.4 13.1 16.0 -0.7 34.9 37.5 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.3 14.3 -0.6 35.6 38.0 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 16.2 15.8 18.6 -0.1 48.4 49.2 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.8 7.8 14.2 -0.5 38.6 40.6 7.5 8.4 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.6 14.6 16.4 -0.6 37.8 40.0 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.5 14.6 14.8 -0.5 38.0 40.2 14.3 15.2 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.3 14.4 15.7 -0.5 39.3 41.3 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.4 15.1 -0.5 38.7 40.4 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 13.1 13.4 14.5 -0.6 35.4 37.4 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.1 15.5 16.3 -0.3 43.2 44.4 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 15.6 15.6 17.0 -0.9 29.3 33.1 15.8 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 14.4 14.7 15.3 -0.6 35.1 37.2 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 16.8 16.6 18.3 0.0 51.0 51.3 15.6 16.5 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.8 12.9 13.9 -0.5 38.4 40.4 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 15.8 15.7 18.6 0.1 51.9 51.9 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.1 12.4 -0.3 42.4 43.8 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.4 14.6 17.5 -0.4 41.3 43.2 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 15.4 15.3 18.3 0.1 53.0 52.9 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 15.2 14.9 18.2 0.0 50.7 50.7 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.2 16.1 -0.3 42.7 44.0 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.6 14.5 16.8 -0.5 39.5 41.8 14.1 15.1 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 13.1 13.1 14.2 -1.0 28.0 30.7 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.8 14.9 17.6 -0.3 43.6 45.3 14.1 15.3 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 13.0 12.9 16.4 -1.0 26.9 30.7 13.3 14.1 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.1 13.4 -0.3 42.2 43.6 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.3 15.9 18.7 0.0 50.2 50.6 14.9 15.9 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------