***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 17.3 19.1 0.2 54.8 53.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.4 19.2 0.3 56.0 54.2 15.2 16.1 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.6 18.6 19.1 0.3 56.9 54.4 17.4 18.2 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 14.3 13.4 16.9 -0.4 42.4 44.3 12.9 13.8 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.9 14.3 16.7 -0.2 45.3 46.0 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 12.6 13.3 15.1 -0.2 45.8 46.9 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 15.5 16.6 19.1 0.2 54.4 53.1 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.4 9.1 14.9 -0.2 45.8 46.1 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 15.0 15.7 17.1 -0.1 48.0 48.0 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 14.8 15.6 15.5 -0.2 46.0 46.4 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 14.5 15.3 16.4 0.0 48.9 48.3 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 12.6 13.4 15.9 -0.1 48.1 47.6 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.4 15.3 -0.1 47.6 47.3 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 15.5 16.4 17.1 0.1 51.1 49.8 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 16.1 16.8 17.9 -0.2 44.9 46.6 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 15.0 15.8 16.1 -0.2 46.6 46.6 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 15.9 17.0 18.6 0.2 54.9 53.2 16.1 16.8 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 13.0 13.7 14.7 -0.2 45.3 45.9 13.2 13.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.4 19.2 0.4 57.8 55.2 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.1 9.9 13.1 -0.1 47.6 47.7 9.3 10.0 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 14.9 15.8 18.2 0.0 50.6 49.9 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 16.0 16.0 18.6 0.3 55.8 54.3 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.0 18.9 0.4 58.1 54.9 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 15.4 16.2 16.9 0.0 50.6 49.5 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.9 17.5 0.0 50.4 50.4 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.3 15.2 -0.3 43.4 44.2 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.1 18.2 0.2 53.6 52.5 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 13.7 14.3 17.3 -0.4 41.6 43.6 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 12.3 13.2 14.1 -0.2 45.8 46.2 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.7 19.3 0.3 56.4 54.5 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------