***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 26.4 26.8 -1.4 29.6 31.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 26.7 27.0 26.9 -1.2 34.0 35.2 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 26.0 26.2 26.6 -1.6 27.6 29.0 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 89 11 0 100 18.4 18.3 24.2 -2.3 18.6 19.9 19.6 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 95 5 0 100 25.5 25.5 24.4 -2.6 16.9 18.0 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 24.4 24.0 21.7 -2.7 12.6 13.6 25.9 27.0 28.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 26.6 26.9 26.9 -1.2 33.6 34.7 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 96 4 0 100 13.7 13.3 21.8 -3.1 13.2 14.4 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 92 8 0 100 25.5 25.5 25.2 -2.4 18.8 20.1 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 95 5 0 100 25.3 25.1 23.0 -2.8 15.9 17.1 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 96 4 0 100 25.2 25.0 23.9 -2.8 15.6 16.7 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 96 4 0 100 24.7 24.4 23.0 -3.0 13.4 14.5 26.0 27.1 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 25.6 25.4 23.3 -2.7 14.5 15.6 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 85 15 0 100 25.7 25.6 24.3 -2.3 19.2 20.8 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 26.8 26.7 26.3 -2.2 19.6 21.5 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 96 4 0 100 26.2 26.1 23.9 -2.6 15.8 17.0 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 28.1 26.8 26.8 -0.9 37.5 38.4 26.4 27.6 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 96 4 0 100 24.3 24.0 21.8 -2.9 14.6 15.9 25.6 26.8 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 26.1 26.4 26.8 -1.3 32.8 34.1 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 96 4 0 100 19.9 19.5 19.7 -2.9 13.4 14.6 21.3 22.4 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 86 14 0 100 25.6 25.6 26.0 -2.3 19.8 21.2 26.7 28.0 29.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 28.5 27.1 26.6 -1.0 35.9 36.9 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 26.2 26.3 26.3 -1.6 28.3 29.8 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 88 12 0 100 25.1 25.0 24.1 -2.4 18.0 19.5 26.2 27.3 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 26.0 26.1 25.1 -2.0 22.2 23.4 27.0 28.1 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 25.4 24.9 22.7 -3.0 11.8 12.9 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 25.9 26.1 26.0 -1.5 27.4 28.8 26.5 27.6 28.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 93 7 0 100 26.4 26.2 24.9 -2.5 16.0 17.6 27.7 29.0 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 95 5 0 100 19.4 19.1 20.9 -2.8 14.3 15.6 20.8 22.1 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 26.3 26.6 27.0 -1.3 32.4 33.7 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------