***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 29.8 29.4 0.5 56.7 56.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 29.1 29.6 29.5 0.7 60.4 59.2 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 29.3 29.5 29.4 0.5 57.5 56.8 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.8 21.3 27.2 -0.7 39.8 41.8 20.7 22.2 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 30.1 28.8 27.1 -0.5 43.0 44.4 27.9 29.4 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 28.6 26.9 24.2 -1.1 32.7 35.8 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 29.1 29.4 29.4 0.6 59.1 58.3 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.6 16.3 25.1 -0.7 40.1 41.8 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 29.4 28.6 27.5 -0.2 47.2 48.1 27.2 28.8 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.0 26.0 -0.4 44.0 45.3 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 29.5 28.4 26.6 -0.4 43.5 44.7 27.4 28.9 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 28.7 27.2 26.2 -0.7 40.2 41.8 26.6 28.0 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 29.9 28.2 25.5 -0.9 36.4 38.7 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 28.8 28.7 27.2 0.2 53.7 53.4 26.9 28.4 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 30.6 29.3 27.9 -0.6 39.6 41.9 28.8 30.1 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 30.6 29.1 26.2 -0.8 38.4 40.4 28.6 30.1 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 28.6 29.1 29.2 0.8 61.5 60.3 26.7 28.1 29.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 28.1 27.2 25.1 -0.3 45.1 46.4 26.2 27.6 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 28.6 29.1 29.6 0.8 61.0 59.7 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 23.9 22.5 22.7 -0.7 40.0 42.1 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 29.4 28.9 28.6 0.1 51.0 51.4 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 29.0 29.6 29.2 0.8 62.1 60.7 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 28.8 29.2 29.2 0.7 60.0 58.6 26.9 28.4 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 28.7 28.3 27.1 0.1 51.5 51.7 26.7 28.2 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 29.8 29.3 27.7 0.1 51.2 51.4 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.6 27.7 25.4 -1.3 30.9 33.9 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 29.1 29.0 28.4 0.4 55.6 55.2 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 30.6 29.0 27.3 -0.9 36.4 39.0 28.8 30.1 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.5 22.5 24.0 -0.3 45.3 46.6 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 29.0 29.3 29.6 0.7 59.6 58.5 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------