***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 29.8 29.4 0.3 54.5 54.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 29.6 29.5 29.5 0.5 56.6 55.7 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.3 29.4 0.4 54.9 54.5 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 23.2 21.8 27.4 -0.6 41.2 44.4 21.1 22.6 24.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 27.8 29.0 27.3 -0.5 43.5 45.8 28.1 29.6 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 26.6 27.6 24.8 -0.6 40.6 43.2 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.3 29.1 29.3 0.4 55.7 55.1 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 16.3 17.4 25.3 -0.5 42.4 44.4 16.7 17.9 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 27.4 28.8 27.6 -0.2 46.8 48.3 27.6 29.1 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 27.2 28.5 26.0 -0.4 44.4 46.2 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 27.4 28.8 26.8 -0.3 45.2 46.8 27.7 29.2 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 26.6 28.0 26.6 -0.4 43.6 45.5 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 27.7 28.9 26.1 -0.5 42.1 44.5 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 29.3 28.7 27.0 0.0 49.4 49.9 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 30.8 29.7 28.3 -0.4 43.5 46.3 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 28.4 29.6 26.6 -0.5 42.4 44.8 28.8 30.3 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.9 28.8 29.1 0.4 56.2 55.2 27.2 28.4 29.5 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 26.6 27.7 25.0 -0.4 43.8 45.6 26.8 28.1 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 29.1 29.0 29.6 0.5 57.1 55.9 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 22.4 23.4 22.8 -0.6 41.1 43.3 22.7 24.1 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 29.7 29.1 28.6 0.0 49.8 50.7 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.3 29.3 29.0 0.4 56.1 55.0 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 29.2 29.1 29.1 0.4 55.9 54.9 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.4 27.0 -0.1 48.8 49.6 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 29.9 29.3 27.7 -0.1 49.3 50.5 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 27.4 28.4 26.1 -0.7 38.8 42.2 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.9 28.4 0.2 53.0 53.3 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 28.8 29.5 27.7 -0.6 40.4 43.8 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 21.9 23.0 23.9 -0.5 43.6 45.3 22.2 23.5 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.2 29.2 29.6 0.5 56.4 55.6 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------