***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 30.4 30.4 0.9 61.6 58.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 28.2 30.3 30.3 0.9 61.4 58.2 28.4 29.6 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 28.1 30.5 30.5 1.0 62.1 58.5 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 21.2 22.7 28.3 -0.2 47.5 48.4 21.6 22.9 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 28.5 30.3 28.2 0.1 50.7 50.5 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 27.1 28.6 25.7 -0.2 47.0 47.4 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 27.9 30.1 30.1 0.8 60.2 57.3 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 16.6 18.1 26.3 0.0 49.9 49.5 16.9 18.1 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 28.3 30.1 28.6 0.4 54.6 53.2 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 27.9 29.6 27.0 0.2 52.2 51.3 28.1 29.5 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 28.0 29.9 27.8 0.2 52.3 51.4 28.4 29.7 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 27.5 29.1 27.6 0.1 51.2 50.4 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 28.5 30.0 27.0 0.0 49.6 49.2 28.8 30.0 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 29.7 29.7 28.0 0.6 57.2 55.2 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 29.2 30.5 29.1 -0.1 48.0 49.0 29.5 30.7 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 29.1 30.7 27.5 0.0 49.5 49.4 29.4 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 27.5 29.8 29.8 0.8 60.3 57.3 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 28.8 28.5 26.1 0.2 52.4 51.6 27.1 28.4 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 30.5 30.0 30.5 1.0 62.5 58.9 28.0 29.1 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.3 23.8 -0.1 49.0 48.8 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 28.2 30.3 29.7 0.6 57.6 55.4 28.4 29.7 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 28.0 30.2 29.8 0.9 60.9 57.9 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 27.8 30.0 30.1 1.0 62.4 58.7 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 29.5 29.5 28.1 0.6 57.0 54.9 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 28.3 30.4 28.7 0.5 55.9 54.3 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 27.8 29.2 27.0 -0.3 45.5 46.4 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 27.9 30.2 29.4 0.7 59.3 56.6 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 29.1 30.3 28.6 -0.3 46.0 47.3 29.5 30.6 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 24.4 24.1 25.0 0.2 52.3 51.4 22.6 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 30.8 30.3 30.5 1.0 61.9 58.5 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------