***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 14.1 19.9 137.6 74.8 67.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 14.9 15.3 17.0 123.4 71.0 60.9 3.9 7.8 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 22.0 29.3 22.7 165.0 80.0 73.5 4.1 9.0 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 26.7 44.1 24.4 211.3 86.6 79.9 4.8 10.5 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 24.4 36.1 25.4 200.5 85.3 80.2 5.2 10.5 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 21.3 35.0 23.8 202.9 86.3 78.7 4.4 9.1 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.8 11.3 15.2 109.3 66.5 55.1 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 39.8 58.4 28.2 224.0 88.1 83.3 11.2 19.3 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 22.8 36.2 26.6 204.7 86.1 81.6 3.7 8.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 33.7 52.0 29.2 208.1 86.6 81.8 6.2 13.0 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 20.7 33.5 23.2 214.0 86.6 80.8 3.8 8.3 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 25.8 40.3 22.8 223.8 87.7 82.5 6.6 12.1 19.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 15.3 23.4 22.2 198.7 85.6 78.4 4.1 7.6 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 25.7 35.9 27.4 175.8 82.6 75.4 6.3 12.2 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 13.3 24.8 21.6 228.3 88.4 78.5 2.5 5.6 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 18.5 28.9 23.3 218.7 87.6 80.9 5.5 9.6 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.1 9.9 13.6 99.9 63.5 51.4 3.9 6.8 10.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 26.4 39.3 32.3 203.0 86.4 81.6 6.2 11.8 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 18.1 20.2 19.2 138.1 74.8 65.7 5.0 9.3 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 23.7 34.1 29.9 199.9 86.1 80.5 6.8 11.9 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 23.0 32.0 24.1 183.2 83.0 77.8 5.0 10.1 17.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.9 20.1 15.7 108.8 66.8 55.7 5.8 11.5 19.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 17.5 21.5 22.0 156.7 78.9 70.4 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 23.2 35.3 29.8 200.4 86.1 80.7 5.5 10.6 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 19.5 22.1 22.2 141.3 75.3 69.9 4.1 8.7 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 12.9 18.6 19.1 207.8 86.3 79.5 4.0 6.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 20.4 21.9 20.5 126.0 71.7 65.3 4.8 10.1 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 16.1 31.3 23.2 237.6 89.5 81.0 2.9 6.3 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 32.8 46.9 32.1 201.7 86.4 81.0 9.0 15.8 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 19.3 21.1 18.3 131.4 73.2 64.2 4.2 8.9 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------