***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 10.3 8.9 106.4 67.8 46.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.9 11.6 9.0 96.6 64.2 46.8 3.7 7.2 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.0 12.8 9.8 117.3 70.3 48.2 3.8 7.0 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.8 16.1 9.5 116.9 70.4 49.5 2.9 7.1 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.1 14.2 9.6 120.8 71.3 43.8 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.8 14.9 12.5 113.2 68.9 52.1 3.5 7.4 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.7 9.3 8.4 88.1 61.3 44.4 3.0 6.2 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 4.1 18.9 11.6 128.6 72.5 47.2 4.1 8.5 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.8 13.7 11.3 132.4 73.8 48.5 3.4 6.5 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.0 12.9 12.5 127.3 72.2 47.7 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 2.5 13.5 9.1 129.8 73.2 48.0 2.1 5.3 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.1 18.4 8.3 130.7 73.0 45.9 2.8 7.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.1 11.8 10.3 130.4 73.5 53.3 1.5 4.2 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.2 17.4 12.5 115.9 69.7 47.1 4.0 8.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.3 10.8 8.0 114.5 70.5 51.1 2.5 5.1 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 1.8 9.5 10.0 133.7 74.2 53.7 1.5 3.5 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.3 8.0 82.5 59.3 41.8 3.3 6.2 10.0 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 3.1 13.4 14.1 117.8 69.7 45.6 3.0 6.5 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.7 13.7 9.4 105.9 67.0 47.4 4.3 8.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.5 14.4 16.2 132.2 73.4 53.2 3.2 6.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.2 11.1 9.9 128.4 73.0 47.6 3.0 5.5 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.8 7.9 8.4 89.2 61.5 42.0 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.3 10.8 9.5 110.9 68.3 44.9 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.6 14.0 13.0 124.0 71.4 48.5 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.6 13.5 9.8 102.1 65.9 47.1 4.3 8.1 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 10.9 15.2 9.2 161.1 79.5 60.3 2.2 4.9 9.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.5 15.2 9.9 98.9 65.1 46.8 3.7 8.3 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.6 14.5 8.8 118.4 71.0 49.6 3.0 6.5 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.9 18.3 15.6 126.2 71.8 50.4 4.6 8.9 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.9 10.9 9.1 100.5 65.5 47.4 3.5 6.6 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------