***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 12.9 10.2 95.3 65.2 47.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 3.0 11.0 10.3 97.9 64.7 46.3 2.8 6.3 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.7 15.0 11.0 105.1 67.6 49.3 2.7 6.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.6 22.2 13.6 126.1 72.7 54.1 3.9 9.1 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.1 13.9 13.3 125.3 72.4 51.9 2.6 5.8 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.6 18.7 16.6 127.7 72.5 57.1 3.6 8.0 14.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.8 12.6 10.2 97.7 64.6 46.4 3.6 7.6 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 6.6 29.3 14.7 145.5 76.6 55.8 5.6 11.6 20.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.9 15.4 14.0 130.2 73.5 52.5 2.4 5.8 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.9 25.4 15.5 135.3 74.5 53.8 3.8 9.3 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.5 15.1 12.0 134.2 74.4 53.9 2.5 5.7 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.3 19.8 11.4 143.4 76.2 55.0 2.6 6.4 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.2 12.6 13.2 137.0 74.9 56.6 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.8 23.2 14.5 117.6 70.3 53.5 4.7 10.7 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.6 14.0 11.3 126.2 72.7 53.1 2.6 5.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.7 10.8 12.7 134.0 74.4 56.4 2.7 5.0 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 5.0 15.2 9.6 90.9 62.7 46.0 4.5 9.5 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.1 21.7 17.7 131.9 73.7 55.9 4.2 9.2 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.7 17.5 10.6 102.7 66.5 47.5 4.1 9.2 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 14.1 17.3 19.4 145.7 76.6 59.5 3.3 6.9 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.4 16.3 11.7 115.9 70.3 49.9 4.0 8.1 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 6.1 18.2 10.2 99.9 65.8 47.1 5.5 10.8 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.9 15.4 11.4 111.0 69.2 49.8 3.4 7.5 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.8 20.3 14.8 122.4 71.7 54.0 3.5 8.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.4 17.8 14.2 117.5 70.5 52.1 3.5 8.0 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.9 18.8 10.2 148.3 77.1 57.0 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.5 15.6 12.7 104.5 67.3 49.2 3.8 8.2 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.5 18.2 12.2 124.0 72.2 53.8 3.6 8.0 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 26.8 30.2 18.0 137.7 74.9 58.3 6.1 12.6 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 4.4 15.0 10.3 98.1 65.2 46.9 4.3 8.9 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------