***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 10.6 5.8 65.5 56.4 36.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 4.2 12.9 6.6 76.7 59.2 41.6 4.0 9.0 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.2 9.7 6.0 69.5 57.5 39.3 3.4 7.3 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 2.7 11.0 7.6 97.2 65.3 43.2 2.9 6.2 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 3.2 10.1 6.9 78.9 60.3 40.3 3.6 7.1 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.0 12.8 11.3 122.2 71.9 50.4 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 2.7 8.8 6.4 72.9 57.6 40.9 3.0 6.6 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 4.9 14.5 7.1 84.9 61.2 44.5 4.4 9.5 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 2.9 9.6 6.6 68.8 57.4 39.4 3.4 7.2 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.2 10.9 7.4 74.3 58.4 42.2 3.9 8.1 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.5 11.7 6.1 88.1 62.7 41.8 3.3 7.2 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 3.1 11.2 5.5 90.5 62.9 42.5 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.6 10.1 7.7 101.4 66.3 46.6 2.5 5.4 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 3.4 12.2 7.9 79.5 59.5 44.3 3.3 8.1 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.2 11.1 7.7 136.7 74.7 47.2 1.9 4.4 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.9 11.4 7.3 103.4 66.9 45.9 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.5 13.1 7.2 86.5 61.3 42.4 4.2 8.7 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.0 14.4 8.7 75.3 58.1 44.1 4.9 10.6 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 3.8 11.7 6.6 76.6 59.4 41.6 3.6 8.1 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.2 13.2 10.0 90.8 62.1 48.3 5.7 9.6 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 2.5 8.6 5.8 67.5 56.6 36.9 2.9 6.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.6 10.6 7.8 91.0 63.1 44.1 3.4 6.7 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 2.8 10.0 6.4 75.5 59.0 41.7 2.7 6.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.7 11.9 7.5 75.7 58.3 43.2 4.7 9.1 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.7 10.1 7.8 81.3 61.0 41.5 2.7 6.4 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.9 10.4 5.7 108.9 67.8 46.2 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 3.1 10.6 7.5 74.3 58.9 40.0 2.8 7.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.7 12.0 7.6 116.5 70.1 45.4 3.0 5.9 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.0 17.7 9.1 79.7 59.1 45.3 6.3 12.7 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 3.0 8.7 6.3 70.9 57.6 40.0 3.3 6.6 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------