***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 49.1 44.8 105.7 63.8 57.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 50.4 55.6 42.9 101.6 61.0 53.7 31.8 45.2 61.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 52.6 68.7 49.5 120.1 69.0 62.4 31.1 46.2 64.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 78.3 90.7 55.1 143.8 76.6 69.2 34.3 51.2 71.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 65.3 72.3 55.1 138.1 75.0 67.9 28.9 42.8 59.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 69.0 79.1 64.3 142.3 76.8 69.4 29.9 44.6 62.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 44.1 43.7 40.1 94.2 57.2 50.3 24.5 37.3 52.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 102.8 120.1 61.6 154.4 80.1 72.9 47.9 67.6 90.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 62.9 72.8 58.5 139.6 75.5 69.0 27.2 41.5 58.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 83.4 93.9 64.5 143.0 76.8 69.8 41.1 57.6 76.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 64.1 76.6 50.4 149.3 77.9 70.7 21.9 36.8 55.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 77.8 96.8 48.0 156.7 80.1 72.7 26.6 43.9 66.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 50.6 60.0 53.4 147.2 77.8 70.3 20.7 31.8 45.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 89.0 93.6 62.2 128.1 72.3 64.9 45.0 62.8 83.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 48.0 62.3 48.5 156.3 79.7 70.7 15.9 27.1 42.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 51.2 62.1 53.3 153.8 79.3 72.2 19.8 31.1 44.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 51.4 48.3 38.3 90.9 54.7 46.8 31.9 44.3 59.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 80.4 90.9 72.7 137.8 75.7 68.4 40.4 56.6 75.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 56.6 66.8 45.8 109.8 64.9 57.3 34.7 50.3 68.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 65.2 73.7 75.6 146.3 78.5 71.3 37.1 48.2 60.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 47 53 100 60.8 68.2 51.6 130.1 72.7 66.0 28.7 42.4 59.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 57.4 58.0 42.2 98.8 59.1 50.4 36.5 50.0 65.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 61.1 61.8 49.3 119.2 68.8 61.0 33.2 45.3 59.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 71.9 82.0 65.2 137.4 75.4 68.5 35.7 50.8 68.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 52.7 66.9 54.1 115.1 67.1 60.2 30.5 46.1 65.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 52.3 66.0 44.2 164.1 81.7 75.0 22.0 33.0 46.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 56.1 66.4 50.6 104.3 62.8 56.0 30.2 48.3 71.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 61.4 75.1 51.9 154.2 79.3 71.0 27.0 40.4 56.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 98.3 109.7 74.7 141.8 77.1 70.1 58.1 74.9 92.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 49.6 56.3 44.0 103.9 62.2 55.5 29.9 44.1 60.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------