***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 13.6 13.1 16.4 -2.0 13.4 17.4 14.4 15.3 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 90 10 0 100 12.9 12.5 16.2 -2.0 14.0 17.1 14.0 15.0 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 15.3 14.9 16.7 -1.9 15.4 18.8 16.1 17.0 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 10.6 10.5 14.5 -1.3 20.9 25.1 11.3 12.2 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 12.3 12.2 15.2 -1.4 20.5 24.6 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 11.7 12.1 13.3 -0.5 37.3 39.2 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 88 12 0 100 13.6 13.2 16.2 -2.1 13.6 16.5 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 6.6 6.7 12.8 -1.0 25.5 29.5 7.1 7.8 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 13.7 13.8 15.7 -1.1 26.0 29.2 14.2 15.0 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 13.7 13.8 13.8 -0.9 27.2 30.9 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 13.4 13.5 15.3 -1.1 24.9 28.4 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 11.3 11.3 13.9 -1.1 25.0 28.9 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 12.8 13.3 14.7 -0.6 35.2 37.7 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 14.2 14.3 15.1 -1.2 23.1 26.9 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 15.2 15.3 17.1 -1.0 25.8 29.6 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 13.8 14.0 14.9 -1.0 26.3 30.0 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 89 11 0 100 13.9 13.6 16.0 -1.9 14.6 17.3 14.8 15.7 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 11.8 11.8 13.0 -1.1 24.7 28.7 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 13.3 13.0 16.3 -1.9 15.3 18.3 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 7.7 7.9 11.2 -1.0 25.5 29.6 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 13.3 13.0 16.3 -1.5 18.5 22.1 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 89 11 0 100 13.1 12.7 16.2 -1.9 13.9 16.8 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 83 17 0 100 12.9 12.7 16.5 -1.8 17.6 20.6 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 13.8 13.8 15.1 -1.3 21.1 24.8 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 13.3 12.6 15.6 -1.9 13.8 18.5 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 12.7 13.3 13.7 -0.4 40.0 41.4 13.0 13.7 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 12.6 11.9 15.9 -2.0 13.4 17.8 13.6 14.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 12.6 12.7 15.5 -1.1 25.3 29.3 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 10.6 10.7 12.3 -1.0 25.9 29.8 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 13.5 13.1 16.5 -2.0 14.4 17.6 14.4 15.4 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------