***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 14.3 14.3 17.3 -1.3 27.9 30.6 14.7 15.6 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 14.0 14.1 17.3 -1.3 28.3 31.2 14.4 15.4 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 16.0 16.2 17.6 -1.3 26.7 29.7 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 11.3 11.4 14.9 -1.2 26.8 30.5 11.9 13.1 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 12.4 12.4 15.2 -1.3 25.1 28.6 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 11.7 11.5 12.8 -1.2 21.9 26.9 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 14.4 14.5 17.3 -1.3 27.3 30.3 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 6.8 6.6 12.4 -1.6 19.5 22.9 7.5 8.4 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 13.9 13.9 15.3 -1.3 24.8 27.9 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 13.8 13.7 13.5 -1.4 22.3 25.5 14.3 15.2 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 13.6 13.4 14.7 -1.6 19.7 23.3 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 11.6 11.3 13.4 -1.7 18.4 22.2 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 12.7 12.4 13.3 -1.6 17.3 22.3 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 14.4 14.4 15.0 -1.4 22.4 26.1 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 15.3 15.2 16.7 -1.4 21.7 26.1 15.8 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 13.9 13.7 14.2 -1.5 20.2 24.6 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 15.3 15.5 17.3 -1.1 30.9 33.6 15.6 16.5 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 12.1 12.0 12.7 -1.4 22.1 25.6 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 14.3 14.4 17.4 -1.2 28.2 31.0 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 8.1 7.9 10.5 -1.4 20.4 24.3 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 13.7 13.7 16.5 -1.3 24.9 28.1 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 14.0 14.1 17.3 -1.1 29.8 32.5 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 13.5 13.7 17.2 -1.3 26.6 29.7 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 14.2 14.2 15.0 -1.3 23.2 26.8 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 13.6 13.7 16.1 -1.3 27.4 30.4 14.1 15.1 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 12.9 12.8 12.8 -1.4 21.9 26.6 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 13.7 13.8 16.7 -1.2 29.0 32.0 14.1 15.3 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 12.8 12.7 15.4 -1.3 23.3 27.8 13.3 14.1 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 10.9 10.7 11.9 -1.4 20.7 24.3 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 14.5 14.6 17.5 -1.3 27.9 30.6 14.9 15.9 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------