***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 15.0 15.1 18.2 -0.6 31.6 33.9 15.2 15.7 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 14.7 14.8 18.0 -0.7 31.0 33.2 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 16.9 17.1 18.5 -0.6 31.7 33.8 17.1 17.7 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 12.5 12.8 16.0 -0.3 39.2 41.1 12.6 13.2 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 13.3 13.6 16.1 -0.5 34.4 36.6 13.5 14.1 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 12.5 12.9 14.1 -0.2 42.2 43.6 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 15.2 15.3 18.1 -0.7 29.1 31.5 15.4 15.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 8.0 8.1 13.7 -0.5 30.8 33.5 8.2 8.6 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 14.7 15.0 16.3 -0.4 37.3 38.9 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 14.7 14.8 14.6 -0.4 35.4 37.3 14.8 15.3 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 14.3 14.4 15.8 -0.5 31.8 34.6 14.5 15.0 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 12.4 12.4 14.7 -0.6 28.9 32.2 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 13.6 13.8 14.4 -0.4 33.8 37.2 13.7 14.3 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 15.2 15.3 15.8 -0.6 28.3 31.1 15.4 16.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 15.9 16.2 17.7 -0.4 35.6 38.9 16.1 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 14.8 15.1 15.2 -0.4 34.8 37.6 15.0 15.6 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 15.8 16.0 17.9 -0.5 33.6 35.6 15.9 16.5 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 12.7 13.0 13.6 -0.4 33.2 35.3 13.0 13.6 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 15.0 15.1 18.1 -0.6 31.5 33.5 15.1 15.7 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 8.9 9.0 11.5 -0.5 31.5 34.0 9.1 9.6 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 14.5 14.7 17.4 -0.5 33.2 35.3 14.7 15.2 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 14.7 14.8 17.9 -0.6 32.6 34.7 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 14.4 14.5 18.0 -0.7 30.3 32.4 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 14.9 15.1 15.8 -0.6 30.7 33.0 15.2 15.7 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 14.4 14.6 16.9 -0.6 32.0 34.6 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 13.7 14.0 14.0 -0.3 39.9 42.2 13.8 14.2 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 14.3 14.5 17.5 -0.6 32.4 34.6 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 13.5 13.9 16.5 -0.3 38.9 41.3 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 12.1 12.2 13.0 -0.5 32.2 34.6 12.3 12.8 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 15.2 15.3 18.3 -0.7 30.9 33.0 15.4 16.0 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------