***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 25.4 24.0 25.0 -4.1 7.0 9.5 26.9 28.1 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 96 4 0 100 25.6 24.3 25.2 -4.2 7.3 9.6 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 96 4 0 100 25.2 23.9 25.0 -4.4 7.4 9.9 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 94 6 0 100 18.2 17.0 22.4 -3.6 8.8 12.3 19.6 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 94 6 0 100 25.6 23.9 23.2 -4.3 6.7 9.9 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 93 7 0 100 24.6 23.5 21.4 -3.5 9.1 13.7 25.9 27.0 28.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 25.5 24.1 25.0 -4.1 6.9 9.2 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 95 5 0 100 13.7 11.9 20.5 -4.8 4.9 8.0 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 94 6 0 100 25.4 24.0 24.1 -4.2 7.0 10.0 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 94 6 0 100 25.3 23.8 21.7 -4.5 6.2 9.5 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 95 5 0 100 25.2 23.5 23.4 -4.8 5.6 8.8 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 95 5 0 100 24.8 23.1 22.0 -4.9 5.4 8.6 26.0 27.1 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 94 6 0 100 25.7 24.1 23.4 -4.4 6.0 10.2 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 96 4 0 100 25.4 23.7 22.9 -4.7 4.8 7.3 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 97 3 0 100 26.4 25.3 25.6 -3.9 8.3 11.6 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 94 6 0 100 26.3 24.5 23.2 -4.5 6.0 9.6 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 95 5 0 100 25.1 23.9 25.1 -3.7 8.7 11.3 26.4 27.6 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 96 4 0 100 24.3 22.4 20.3 -4.8 4.7 7.8 25.6 26.8 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 96 4 0 100 25.1 23.8 25.1 -4.2 7.8 10.1 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 95 5 0 100 20.0 18.1 18.3 -4.7 4.6 7.8 21.3 22.4 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 95 5 0 100 25.3 23.6 24.6 -4.4 6.1 8.8 26.7 28.0 29.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 96 4 0 100 25.5 24.4 24.8 -3.9 8.2 10.7 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 25.4 24.4 25.0 -4.2 8.4 10.8 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 97 3 0 100 24.9 23.1 22.8 -4.8 4.7 7.5 26.2 27.3 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 97 3 0 100 25.6 24.0 23.8 -4.2 6.1 8.8 27.0 28.1 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 93 7 0 100 25.5 24.3 22.3 -4.2 7.4 11.7 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 96 4 0 100 25.1 23.6 24.4 -4.0 6.4 9.0 26.5 27.6 28.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 95 5 0 100 26.4 25.2 23.8 -3.7 8.7 12.3 27.7 29.0 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 95 5 0 100 19.4 17.4 19.6 -4.7 4.6 8.0 20.8 22.1 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 96 4 0 100 25.2 23.9 25.2 -4.2 7.7 10.1 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------