***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 26.6 27.4 28.3 -1.2 33.8 36.7 27.3 28.8 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 26.7 27.5 28.7 -1.0 36.3 38.7 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 26.6 27.6 28.8 -1.0 36.8 39.1 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 20.2 21.0 25.9 -1.0 36.3 39.1 20.7 22.2 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 27.4 28.0 26.7 -1.2 34.6 37.7 27.9 29.4 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 26.6 26.9 24.0 -1.1 33.6 37.3 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 26.7 27.5 28.5 -1.1 35.3 37.6 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 15.3 15.6 24.3 -1.5 30.9 34.6 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 26.9 27.7 27.4 -0.9 38.0 40.2 27.2 28.8 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 26.6 27.3 25.4 -1.0 36.8 39.3 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 26.9 27.3 26.7 -1.4 32.3 35.8 27.4 28.9 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 26.0 26.3 25.8 -1.6 29.6 33.7 26.6 28.0 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 27.3 27.6 25.9 -1.6 29.5 33.9 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 26.4 27.0 26.5 -1.2 33.9 36.6 26.9 28.4 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 28.1 28.7 28.1 -1.3 31.6 35.8 28.8 30.1 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 28.0 28.5 26.3 -1.4 31.7 35.6 28.6 30.1 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 28.7 27.4 28.8 -0.6 41.1 42.6 26.7 28.1 29.4 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 25.9 26.5 24.4 -1.1 35.9 38.5 26.2 27.6 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 26.3 27.2 28.8 -0.9 37.6 39.9 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 21.5 21.8 21.8 -1.4 31.6 35.1 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 26.9 27.6 28.0 -1.1 35.3 38.0 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 29.2 27.7 28.5 -0.7 40.2 41.9 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 26.5 27.4 28.8 -0.9 38.5 40.6 26.9 28.4 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 26.2 26.9 26.6 -1.1 35.5 38.1 26.7 28.2 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 27.0 27.7 26.8 -1.3 32.3 35.6 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 27.4 27.4 25.3 -1.8 26.9 31.8 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 26.3 27.1 27.5 -1.2 33.2 36.2 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 28.3 28.9 26.8 -1.0 34.9 38.3 28.8 30.1 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 21.1 21.7 23.5 -1.1 35.4 38.1 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 26.4 27.3 28.7 -1.1 35.6 38.1 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------