***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 30.2 29.8 31.0 0.1 51.0 49.7 28.4 29.7 30.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 30.0 29.7 31.0 0.1 51.4 50.3 28.4 29.6 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 30.1 29.9 31.4 0.3 53.3 51.4 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 23.4 23.5 29.4 0.6 58.6 55.4 21.6 22.9 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 30.7 30.6 29.5 0.4 54.9 52.5 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 29.3 29.2 26.7 0.4 55.2 52.9 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 29.9 29.4 30.8 0.0 49.9 49.3 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 18.6 18.0 27.5 0.0 49.4 48.3 16.9 18.1 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 30.2 30.3 29.7 0.5 56.3 53.6 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.9 29.7 28.2 0.3 53.9 51.7 28.1 29.5 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 30.2 29.9 29.3 0.2 52.0 50.2 28.4 29.7 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 29.5 29.0 29.2 0.0 49.8 48.6 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 30.5 30.2 28.3 0.1 51.8 50.1 28.8 30.0 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 27.8 28.9 28.3 -0.4 44.6 45.0 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 31.1 31.1 30.5 0.5 57.1 54.3 29.5 30.7 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 31.3 31.2 29.1 0.4 55.2 52.5 29.4 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 29.6 29.2 30.9 0.2 52.9 51.6 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 28.8 28.5 27.3 0.2 52.3 50.6 27.1 28.4 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.3 31.2 0.1 51.8 50.6 28.0 29.1 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 22.8 24.3 24.6 -0.1 48.9 48.1 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 30.2 30.0 30.4 0.3 53.3 51.3 28.4 29.7 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 28.1 29.6 30.8 0.2 52.7 51.3 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 29.7 29.2 31.1 0.0 50.0 49.1 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.0 28.8 0.0 50.2 49.0 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 30.4 30.1 29.3 0.2 52.5 50.8 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 30.1 29.8 29.0 0.2 52.6 51.1 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 30.0 29.6 30.0 0.1 51.5 50.1 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 31.0 31.2 29.7 0.6 58.7 55.4 29.5 30.6 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 24.4 23.9 26.1 0.0 50.3 49.2 22.6 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.9 29.5 31.1 0.1 51.4 50.2 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------