***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 27.8 27.9 28.6 -1.3 27.0 30.2 28.2 28.9 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 27.8 27.9 28.8 -1.2 27.7 30.6 28.1 28.8 29.5 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 27.6 27.8 28.9 -1.2 28.9 32.0 28.0 28.8 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 21.1 21.4 26.6 -0.7 34.9 38.6 21.3 22.1 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 28.3 28.3 27.0 -1.1 29.0 33.2 28.5 29.4 30.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 27.1 27.2 24.6 -0.8 31.5 35.6 27.3 28.1 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 27.7 27.7 28.6 -1.2 26.6 29.5 28.0 28.7 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 16.2 16.1 24.8 -1.5 22.6 27.4 16.6 17.3 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 27.8 28.0 27.5 -1.0 31.6 35.1 28.1 28.9 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 27.5 27.6 25.7 -1.1 28.9 32.8 27.8 28.6 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 27.7 27.6 27.0 -1.4 24.5 29.3 28.1 28.9 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 27.0 26.8 26.3 -1.5 22.5 27.7 27.4 28.2 28.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 28.1 28.0 26.3 -1.3 23.7 29.6 28.5 29.3 30.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 27.3 27.2 26.3 -1.6 20.3 24.0 27.8 28.5 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 28.9 29.1 28.5 -1.0 30.6 35.4 29.2 30.0 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 28.8 28.8 26.7 -1.2 26.8 32.0 29.1 30.0 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 27.5 27.6 28.8 -0.9 31.8 34.3 27.6 28.3 28.9 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 26.6 26.6 24.6 -1.3 25.4 29.5 27.0 27.7 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 27.3 27.5 28.9 -1.2 28.7 31.6 27.6 28.3 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 22.3 22.2 22.1 -1.5 21.6 26.2 22.8 23.5 24.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 27.7 27.8 28.2 -1.2 27.5 31.1 28.1 28.9 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 27.9 27.9 28.5 -1.0 30.8 33.4 28.0 28.7 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 27.5 27.6 28.8 -1.2 28.4 31.2 27.8 28.5 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 27.0 27.0 26.6 -1.4 23.6 27.6 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 27.9 28.0 27.1 -1.2 26.4 30.2 28.3 29.2 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 27.8 27.8 26.2 -1.3 24.6 30.1 28.2 28.9 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 27.4 27.6 27.8 -1.2 26.6 30.1 27.9 28.6 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 29.0 29.3 27.3 -0.8 33.7 38.1 29.2 30.0 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 21.9 21.9 23.6 -1.3 23.6 27.9 22.4 23.1 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 27.5 27.6 28.8 -1.2 27.9 30.7 27.9 28.6 29.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------