***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.6 15.9 12.1 108.3 67.7 45.3 4.1 8.6 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.9 11.1 9.7 91.1 62.9 44.5 3.7 7.2 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.0 11.3 12.7 102.3 66.0 48.6 3.8 7.0 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.6 14.3 11.9 107.5 67.3 45.8 2.9 7.1 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.2 13.7 13.0 118.5 70.4 52.3 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.8 12.3 13.0 98.4 63.6 49.8 3.5 7.4 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.6 9.8 9.3 90.3 62.8 45.6 3.0 6.2 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 12.1 13.8 11.6 95.1 63.6 48.2 4.1 8.5 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.6 9.8 11.1 93.6 63.3 45.9 3.4 6.5 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.3 9.7 12.6 96.3 64.2 47.3 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.6 11.9 13.2 116.2 70.0 54.5 2.1 5.3 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.8 12.4 9.7 94.9 63.2 48.6 2.8 7.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.5 11.0 12.9 125.2 71.9 55.5 1.5 4.2 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.0 15.2 14.1 103.6 66.0 50.7 4.0 8.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.8 11.2 12.4 120.6 71.4 47.6 2.5 5.1 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.9 7.0 11.3 105.1 66.6 50.8 1.5 3.5 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.4 9.1 9.2 89.8 62.7 43.2 3.3 6.2 10.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.3 12.3 85.7 59.8 46.3 3.0 6.5 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.7 12.8 10.7 97.4 64.7 46.4 4.3 8.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.7 11.0 15.5 105.4 65.6 52.2 3.2 6.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.3 8.9 11.7 99.7 65.4 46.7 3.0 5.5 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.0 9.4 10.7 105.4 67.1 49.9 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.6 10.2 11.8 103.2 66.2 48.6 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.6 11.1 13.1 98.4 64.1 49.2 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.0 15.0 13.9 113.1 69.1 48.8 4.3 8.1 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.0 10.9 11.9 122.3 70.7 55.1 2.2 4.9 9.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.3 16.0 12.9 106.4 66.7 46.3 3.7 8.3 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.3 12.9 11.4 106.3 67.6 45.6 3.0 6.5 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.0 13.2 14.7 93.7 61.6 49.8 4.6 8.9 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.9 10.0 10.3 92.4 63.0 46.6 3.5 6.6 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------