***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.8 21.6 11.0 129.6 73.8 50.8 3.3 8.0 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.3 12.4 8.4 103.9 67.9 49.3 2.8 6.3 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.3 19.5 11.5 130.4 73.7 50.4 2.7 6.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.7 16.1 9.4 92.6 64.5 41.0 3.9 9.1 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 2.6 11.5 9.2 102.6 67.3 44.4 2.6 5.8 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.7 15.1 12.1 103.5 66.7 43.2 3.6 8.0 14.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.0 14.5 8.5 108.5 68.8 50.0 3.6 7.6 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 5.2 23.7 11.3 116.9 70.4 45.5 5.6 11.6 20.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.5 14.3 11.3 121.9 72.0 46.3 2.4 5.8 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 3.9 24.8 13.7 131.8 73.9 48.3 3.8 9.3 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 2.5 11.8 8.1 105.6 68.0 42.9 2.5 5.7 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 2.8 12.5 7.6 97.3 65.3 40.0 2.6 6.4 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.5 9.1 9.0 97.8 65.6 41.7 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.7 28.0 16.3 137.1 75.2 53.3 4.7 10.7 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.6 12.1 8.7 107.9 68.7 41.8 2.6 5.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 2.4 7.8 8.2 92.5 64.2 40.9 2.7 5.0 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.2 18.1 8.7 103.4 67.9 50.6 4.5 9.5 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 20.2 25.0 17.6 149.8 77.5 52.8 4.2 9.2 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.9 19.4 9.0 108.8 69.1 49.2 4.1 9.2 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 3.4 15.1 16.1 131.2 72.7 50.5 3.3 6.9 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.0 18.4 11.3 130.1 73.8 47.6 4.0 8.1 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 6.3 20.1 9.4 106.3 69.0 52.0 5.5 10.8 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.8 17.3 10.5 122.5 72.2 49.1 3.4 7.5 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.2 24.8 15.5 145.9 76.8 53.0 3.5 8.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.9 19.2 11.3 123.4 72.6 49.5 3.5 8.0 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.6 10.9 6.4 84.0 61.3 38.8 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.0 19.5 11.6 128.2 73.5 50.5 3.8 8.2 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 3.4 14.0 9.0 94.7 65.1 40.9 3.6 8.0 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 27.2 32.7 18.6 147.9 77.1 54.9 6.1 12.6 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 4.5 17.5 9.3 110.5 69.4 50.5 4.3 8.9 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------