***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 3.1 15.2 5.9 120.6 71.1 42.4 3.2 6.9 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 3.8 21.7 6.0 128.2 73.0 43.8 4.0 9.0 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 2.9 15.9 6.4 120.8 71.2 41.1 3.4 7.3 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 2.9 13.5 5.7 119.9 70.9 43.2 2.9 6.2 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.5 16.0 6.4 133.2 74.1 43.8 3.6 7.1 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 2.7 12.7 6.5 123.0 71.7 43.1 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 3.1 15.4 5.9 128.3 72.9 46.9 3.0 6.6 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 4.3 22.0 7.7 128.1 73.0 40.9 4.4 9.5 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.4 18.2 8.0 136.9 75.0 42.8 3.4 7.2 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.8 18.6 9.2 134.3 74.3 43.2 3.9 8.1 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 3.0 16.7 5.5 127.0 72.6 40.2 3.3 7.2 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 2.9 16.1 5.6 128.8 73.1 39.1 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 2.3 13.8 5.9 136.6 74.9 41.7 2.5 5.4 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 3.8 25.8 11.2 149.7 77.4 49.3 3.3 8.1 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 1.8 8.2 4.1 106.4 66.8 38.2 1.9 4.4 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 2.4 14.0 5.3 127.5 72.7 40.0 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 4.3 19.9 6.1 131.8 73.7 45.1 4.2 8.7 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.8 28.3 12.4 146.7 76.9 48.1 4.9 10.6 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 3.4 20.0 6.5 132.2 73.9 42.8 3.6 8.1 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.8 18.0 10.6 132.4 73.8 49.8 5.7 9.6 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 2.9 16.0 6.7 126.8 72.8 40.4 2.9 6.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 3.3 17.0 7.0 147.9 77.0 43.7 3.4 6.7 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.0 18.9 7.3 134.1 74.3 41.8 2.7 6.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.8 20.4 10.4 137.5 75.2 46.1 4.7 9.1 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 2.7 15.7 6.3 121.8 71.7 43.4 2.7 6.4 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 2.4 10.1 3.9 101.6 66.7 35.7 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 3.0 18.9 6.5 127.8 72.9 44.3 2.8 7.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.6 12.0 5.1 117.0 69.8 40.4 3.0 5.9 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.2 32.9 13.0 148.0 77.1 51.9 6.3 12.7 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 2.8 15.3 6.4 134.4 74.2 44.6 3.3 6.6 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------