***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 72.4 79.4 49.4 132.6 73.6 65.1 27.8 44.6 66.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 51.7 60.2 37.5 108.8 65.2 57.0 31.8 45.2 61.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 69.9 78.0 52.6 137.6 74.7 67.1 31.1 46.2 64.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 79.6 102.6 61.9 163.3 81.7 72.6 34.3 51.2 71.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 66.4 86.8 60.6 167.3 82.6 73.6 28.9 42.8 59.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 71.2 95.3 70.1 168.1 84.2 75.9 29.9 44.6 62.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 43.7 50.0 35.7 104.1 63.2 55.1 24.5 37.3 52.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 105.1 143.9 76.8 186.2 87.5 80.7 47.9 67.6 90.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 67.6 88.2 65.2 169.2 83.2 74.3 27.2 41.5 58.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 87.2 115.8 79.9 180.4 86.2 78.2 41.1 57.6 76.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 67.3 98.0 62.2 180.4 85.8 77.1 21.9 36.8 55.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 80.1 120.8 60.6 187.3 87.1 80.1 26.6 43.9 66.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 52.8 74.6 61.4 182.3 85.7 77.6 20.7 31.8 45.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 94.8 118.0 82.1 170.7 83.7 76.5 45.0 62.8 83.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 47.1 63.8 52.9 159.9 80.4 68.4 15.9 27.1 42.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 51.8 72.6 60.8 177.2 85.0 76.4 19.8 31.1 44.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 50.3 55.9 35.3 103.8 63.0 53.4 31.9 44.3 59.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 88.4 119.7 94.2 186.0 87.7 80.2 40.4 56.6 75.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 57.7 71.8 41.8 117.9 68.4 60.2 34.7 50.3 68.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 69.4 88.4 92.7 180.3 87.8 81.5 37.1 48.2 60.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 65.3 80.7 58.6 156.3 80.0 71.3 28.7 42.4 59.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 55.8 66.0 39.6 113.6 66.7 57.7 36.5 50.0 65.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 62.8 68.4 50.9 136.2 74.6 66.1 33.2 45.3 59.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 78.8 101.4 79.2 175.0 84.8 77.3 35.7 50.8 68.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 72.0 82.5 57.7 143.2 76.6 67.9 30.5 46.1 65.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 53.9 73.8 52.5 183.6 85.8 77.6 22.0 33.0 46.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 78.2 85.9 52.8 132.3 73.4 64.6 30.2 48.3 71.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 61.4 81.5 61.0 167.4 82.5 72.4 27.0 40.4 56.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 105.5 134.0 98.2 184.9 88.1 81.1 58.1 74.9 92.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 51.0 62.0 40.4 113.2 66.7 59.5 29.9 44.1 60.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------