***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 9999.0 18.1 20.0 1.7 94.4 89.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 16.7 17.9 20.1 1.8 93.4 88.2 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 18.6 20.0 20.2 2.0 96.6 91.8 17.2 17.7 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 14.1 14.8 18.0 1.3 89.9 84.6 12.7 13.2 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 15.1 16.3 17.9 1.5 93.6 87.7 13.5 14.2 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 13.8 14.7 16.0 1.4 93.9 86.2 12.7 13.1 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 16.8 17.8 20.1 1.7 92.2 86.9 15.4 16.0 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 9.4 10.4 16.0 1.6 95.0 88.8 8.2 8.7 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 5 95 100 16.3 17.6 18.4 1.7 95.7 90.3 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 16.1 17.2 16.6 1.6 95.2 89.2 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 15.9 17.1 17.5 1.6 95.6 89.7 14.5 15.0 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 13.9 15.1 16.9 1.7 96.0 90.4 12.6 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 15.1 16.3 16.4 1.5 95.9 89.5 13.8 14.3 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 16.8 17.7 17.9 1.5 92.9 86.1 15.5 16.0 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 17.5 18.3 19.1 1.4 90.3 85.2 16.1 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 16.5 17.7 17.2 1.6 95.5 89.4 15.1 15.6 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 17.3 17.9 19.3 1.4 88.1 82.7 16.0 16.5 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 14.5 15.7 15.7 1.5 93.9 87.3 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 16.6 17.7 20.1 1.9 95.4 90.5 15.2 15.7 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 10.4 11.3 13.9 1.4 92.4 85.4 9.1 9.6 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 16.2 17.2 19.3 1.7 94.5 89.0 14.7 15.3 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 16.2 16.9 19.3 1.4 89.0 83.6 14.8 15.4 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 16.0 17.4 20.0 2.1 97.3 92.8 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 16.6 17.8 17.9 1.6 95.3 89.3 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 16.3 17.2 18.4 1.4 91.3 85.9 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 14.9 15.7 16.3 1.6 95.1 89.0 13.8 14.2 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 16.5 17.6 19.1 1.5 91.2 85.8 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 15.2 16.0 18.5 1.3 89.7 84.4 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 13.5 14.4 15.1 1.4 93.1 85.8 12.3 12.8 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 17.0 18.1 20.4 1.9 94.8 89.7 15.4 16.0 16.5 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 na severu i u centralnoj, na jugu 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------