***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 19.3 21.2 3.6 98.4 97.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 16.9 19.6 20.6 3.1 96.9 94.2 14.0 15.1 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 18.6 22.2 21.4 3.9 99.4 98.4 16.1 17.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 14.0 17.3 19.2 3.3 98.7 97.3 11.3 12.3 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 15.5 19.0 19.4 3.5 99.4 98.1 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 14.1 16.8 17.0 3.1 98.9 97.4 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 17.0 19.3 20.9 3.1 96.8 94.4 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 9.3 12.0 16.8 3.3 98.9 96.9 7.2 8.0 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 16.4 20.1 19.9 3.6 99.7 99.0 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 16.4 19.8 17.9 3.4 99.4 98.0 14.1 15.0 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 16.1 19.2 18.6 3.2 99.2 97.6 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 14.1 17.1 17.7 3.3 99.0 97.3 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 15.5 19.0 17.8 3.4 99.5 98.2 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 17.2 19.7 18.9 2.9 98.1 95.4 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 17.7 20.0 20.6 3.0 98.5 97.0 15.7 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 16.7 20.4 18.6 3.4 99.5 98.3 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 17.4 19.0 19.8 2.5 93.7 89.8 14.9 15.8 16.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 14.9 18.0 16.6 3.1 99.0 97.2 12.5 13.3 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 16.8 19.5 20.8 3.4 98.0 95.8 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 10.6 13.2 14.3 3.0 98.6 96.1 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 16.4 19.6 20.8 3.5 99.1 97.9 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 16.6 18.4 20.0 2.7 94.7 90.9 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 16.3 19.9 21.0 3.7 99.4 97.9 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 16.9 20.2 19.0 3.3 99.2 97.5 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 16.6 19.0 19.8 3.0 97.2 95.2 14.0 15.0 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 15.0 17.9 17.5 3.7 99.4 98.4 13.0 13.7 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 16.6 19.2 20.1 3.0 96.7 94.6 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 15.5 18.4 19.8 3.2 98.8 97.4 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 13.4 16.3 15.9 3.0 98.8 96.4 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 17.2 19.9 21.2 3.4 97.9 96.1 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------