***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 18.8 20.3 1.8 85.4 74.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 17.3 18.4 20.7 2.0 86.5 74.8 15.1 16.1 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 19.4 20.5 20.4 1.9 87.1 75.2 17.4 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 14.9 15.1 17.9 1.0 73.5 66.2 12.8 13.8 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 15.9 16.3 17.9 1.2 78.5 70.0 13.9 14.7 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 14.6 14.8 15.9 1.1 76.3 67.9 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 17.5 18.3 20.6 1.8 84.5 73.7 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 10.5 11.1 16.2 1.4 82.6 72.4 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 16.9 17.5 18.3 1.5 82.9 73.4 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 16.8 17.4 16.7 1.4 82.1 72.4 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 16.5 17.0 17.6 1.4 81.8 71.9 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 14.6 15.2 17.1 1.4 82.3 72.4 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 15.6 16.0 16.1 1.0 76.2 67.7 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 17.3 18.0 18.3 1.5 83.4 72.2 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 18.0 18.3 18.8 1.0 74.1 66.2 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 17.2 17.6 17.0 1.1 77.2 68.5 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 17.9 18.6 19.9 1.7 82.9 72.2 16.0 16.8 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 15.1 15.6 15.8 1.3 81.7 71.9 13.3 14.0 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 17.1 18.2 20.6 2.1 87.9 75.8 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 11.2 11.6 14.3 1.3 80.3 71.1 9.4 10.1 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 16.9 17.5 19.4 1.6 83.3 73.0 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 16.8 17.5 19.8 1.7 82.8 72.3 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 16.7 17.8 20.3 2.1 88.7 76.3 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 17.1 17.8 18.0 1.5 84.2 73.0 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 17.1 17.7 18.5 1.5 82.6 72.4 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 15.6 15.9 16.2 1.0 75.5 67.2 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 17.4 18.3 19.3 1.6 83.2 72.8 15.0 16.1 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 15.7 15.8 18.3 0.9 71.7 64.7 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 14.5 15.1 15.3 1.3 81.4 71.1 12.5 13.4 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 17.5 18.5 20.8 2.0 87.0 75.2 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------