***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 9999.0 33.4 32.4 4.8 97.5 93.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 29.9 32.9 32.2 4.7 96.9 93.0 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 29.9 33.5 32.8 5.2 98.0 94.6 26.6 27.9 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 23.2 26.8 30.5 4.6 97.6 94.1 19.7 21.0 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 30.4 34.1 31.1 4.9 97.8 94.1 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 29.0 32.9 28.6 4.9 98.8 96.0 25.9 27.1 28.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 29.9 32.6 31.8 4.2 95.8 91.4 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 18.0 22.0 29.4 5.4 98.9 95.5 15.0 16.2 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 29.9 33.8 32.0 5.1 98.3 94.8 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 29.5 33.4 30.3 5.3 98.6 95.0 26.4 27.6 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 29.8 33.6 30.9 5.1 98.3 94.8 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 29.0 33.2 30.5 5.4 99.0 95.7 25.9 27.1 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 30.1 34.2 30.5 5.4 98.9 96.1 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 29.3 32.0 30.4 4.5 96.8 92.2 26.5 27.6 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 31.0 34.3 32.2 4.4 97.5 94.3 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 31.0 35.0 30.8 5.1 98.5 95.4 27.6 28.9 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 7 93 100 29.6 31.9 31.1 3.9 94.3 89.5 26.5 27.6 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 28.7 32.4 29.0 5.1 98.2 93.9 25.5 26.7 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 29.5 32.8 32.5 5.0 97.8 94.3 26.3 27.5 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 24.4 28.7 27.2 5.4 99.0 95.2 21.3 22.5 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 30.0 33.4 32.4 4.8 97.2 93.1 26.7 27.9 29.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 29.8 31.9 31.0 3.9 93.9 89.1 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 29.6 33.1 32.6 5.3 98.5 95.2 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 29.1 32.3 30.6 4.8 97.5 93.0 26.1 27.2 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 30.1 32.9 30.8 4.2 95.9 91.6 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 29.7 33.5 30.2 5.4 99.1 96.7 26.9 28.0 28.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 29.6 32.1 31.2 4.1 95.4 91.0 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 31.1 34.6 31.2 4.5 97.5 94.1 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 24.2 28.2 28.1 5.1 98.3 93.9 20.8 22.0 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 29.8 33.1 32.6 4.8 97.4 93.8 26.5 27.8 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------