***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 30.7 30.1 1.4 71.5 65.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 30.6 31.0 30.3 1.7 73.6 67.5 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 30.9 31.4 30.4 1.8 75.5 68.8 27.4 29.0 30.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 24.0 24.0 28.6 1.2 69.0 63.7 20.8 22.3 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 31.5 31.9 28.7 1.5 73.3 67.1 28.1 29.7 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 29.9 30.7 26.6 1.9 79.9 70.1 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 30.5 30.6 29.9 1.4 70.1 65.0 27.4 28.9 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 19.0 19.9 27.2 2.0 80.0 71.7 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 30.9 31.5 29.0 1.7 75.3 68.7 27.5 29.0 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 30.6 31.3 27.7 1.9 77.7 70.4 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 31.1 32.0 28.5 1.9 79.2 71.3 27.6 29.2 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 30.1 31.2 28.4 2.1 81.1 72.3 26.7 28.2 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 31.4 32.4 27.8 2.0 80.4 71.2 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 30.3 30.6 28.1 1.5 71.9 66.2 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 31.7 31.8 29.3 1.2 70.3 64.4 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 32.2 33.0 28.2 1.9 78.5 70.2 28.8 30.3 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 29.9 30.0 29.6 1.3 69.5 64.4 26.8 28.3 29.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 29.6 30.2 26.8 1.9 76.9 69.6 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 30.2 30.8 30.5 1.9 76.0 69.2 27.0 28.4 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 25.4 26.2 24.8 1.9 79.0 70.8 22.0 23.5 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 30.8 31.1 29.7 1.5 72.7 66.8 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 30.6 30.6 29.5 1.4 69.4 64.5 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 30.4 31.2 30.2 2.0 77.5 70.3 27.1 28.6 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 30.2 30.7 28.4 1.7 75.3 68.5 27.0 28.4 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 31.2 31.1 28.5 1.2 69.4 64.0 27.8 29.3 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 30.8 31.6 28.0 1.9 79.6 70.4 27.9 29.2 30.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 30.4 30.3 29.0 1.2 68.7 63.7 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 31.7 31.8 28.9 1.2 69.9 64.2 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 25.0 25.6 25.7 1.8 76.6 69.2 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 30.5 31.0 30.5 1.7 74.3 68.0 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------