***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9999.0 31.4 30.8 1.6 72.5 66.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 30.6 31.2 31.3 2.1 78.7 71.4 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 30.5 30.9 31.2 1.9 76.1 69.5 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 23.0 23.7 29.1 1.0 64.3 60.5 21.1 22.5 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 31.1 31.2 29.1 1.3 68.9 64.0 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.8 29.6 26.6 1.1 66.0 60.5 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 30.2 30.6 31.0 1.9 76.3 69.5 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 19.1 19.3 27.3 1.5 70.2 64.5 16.5 17.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 30.6 30.9 29.5 1.6 72.1 66.5 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 30.5 30.8 28.1 1.6 71.6 65.9 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 30.7 31.1 28.8 1.6 72.0 66.1 27.6 29.1 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 29.9 30.2 28.5 1.5 70.9 65.0 26.9 28.4 29.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 30.9 31.0 27.9 1.3 68.7 63.1 28.1 29.5 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 30.3 30.7 29.0 1.8 74.8 68.4 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 30.6 31.2 29.7 1.0 64.7 60.5 28.9 30.1 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 31.7 31.8 28.4 1.3 68.9 63.4 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 29.8 30.3 30.8 2.0 77.1 70.2 27.2 28.3 29.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 29.5 29.8 27.2 1.6 71.8 65.8 26.7 28.0 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 30.1 30.8 31.5 2.3 80.0 72.4 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 24.5 25.4 24.9 1.3 68.2 62.7 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 30.6 30.8 30.3 1.5 71.3 65.9 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 30.3 30.9 30.7 2.0 77.5 70.5 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 30.2 31.0 31.2 2.3 80.5 72.9 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 30.0 30.4 29.0 1.8 74.5 68.1 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 29.7 30.7 29.2 1.3 68.3 63.5 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 29.7 30.5 27.9 1.1 65.7 60.9 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 30.0 30.1 29.8 1.4 69.9 64.8 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.6 31.1 29.3 0.9 63.3 59.5 28.9 30.1 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 24.9 25.1 26.0 1.5 70.3 64.6 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 30.3 30.8 31.4 2.0 77.9 70.7 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------