***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 33.0 32.1 2.5 84.7 73.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 30.9 32.3 32.4 2.8 85.7 74.0 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 31.2 32.6 32.3 2.6 85.7 73.8 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 24.5 25.2 30.2 1.9 79.5 70.0 21.7 22.9 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 32.0 33.1 30.3 2.2 82.5 71.8 28.9 30.3 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 30.6 31.7 27.7 2.1 83.7 72.9 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 30.8 32.3 32.2 2.7 85.5 74.1 28.1 29.3 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 19.8 20.9 28.5 2.3 85.2 73.2 17.1 18.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 31.5 32.7 30.6 2.4 84.6 73.0 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 31.1 32.5 29.2 2.4 85.5 73.4 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 31.5 33.0 30.0 2.4 86.1 74.2 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 30.8 32.0 29.7 2.3 85.5 73.7 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 31.8 32.9 29.1 2.2 83.7 72.7 28.9 30.2 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 30.8 31.9 30.1 2.5 84.1 71.8 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 32.1 32.9 30.9 1.9 81.0 71.5 29.5 30.7 31.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 32.5 33.7 29.6 2.2 84.0 72.9 29.6 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 30.5 31.9 31.9 2.6 84.8 73.2 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 29.9 31.2 28.3 2.5 85.2 72.7 27.2 28.4 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 30.7 32.1 32.6 2.8 86.1 74.1 27.8 29.1 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 26.1 27.2 26.0 2.2 83.1 71.4 23.3 24.5 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 31.4 32.5 31.5 2.3 83.7 72.5 28.5 29.8 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 30.8 32.1 31.8 2.6 83.7 72.2 28.1 29.4 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 30.8 32.2 32.2 2.8 86.8 74.4 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 30.5 31.8 30.2 2.5 85.5 73.0 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 31.6 32.6 30.4 2.2 82.7 71.7 28.7 29.9 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 31.3 32.1 28.9 1.9 80.2 70.4 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 31.0 32.2 31.1 2.3 83.8 72.4 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 31.9 32.6 30.5 1.8 79.5 70.2 29.5 30.6 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 25.5 26.8 27.2 2.4 84.6 72.1 22.7 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 30.9 32.4 32.5 2.7 85.8 74.1 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------