***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 9999.0 30.7 31.3 2.6 94.4 87.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 29.9 31.3 31.6 2.8 94.9 89.1 28.2 28.8 29.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 30.0 31.8 31.7 2.9 96.1 89.7 28.1 28.8 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 23.4 24.5 29.6 2.2 91.3 84.5 21.4 22.2 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 30.8 32.3 29.8 2.5 93.9 87.3 28.6 29.4 30.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 29.3 31.0 27.4 2.5 95.6 89.0 27.4 28.1 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 29.8 31.0 31.2 2.5 93.7 87.5 28.1 28.7 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 18.5 20.2 28.1 2.8 96.5 90.5 16.7 17.4 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 30.2 31.9 30.3 2.7 95.6 89.0 28.1 28.9 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 30.0 31.9 28.8 2.8 96.3 89.9 27.9 28.7 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 30.3 32.3 29.5 2.7 96.2 90.2 28.1 29.0 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 29.5 31.5 29.3 2.8 96.7 91.1 27.4 28.2 28.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 5 95 100 30.6 32.4 28.8 2.7 96.2 90.3 28.6 29.3 30.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 29.6 31.0 29.4 2.6 95.1 88.1 27.9 28.5 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 31.1 32.2 30.5 2.1 91.2 84.8 29.3 30.0 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 31.4 33.2 29.3 2.6 95.6 89.5 29.2 30.0 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 29.4 30.6 30.9 2.5 93.0 87.0 27.7 28.3 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 28.9 30.4 27.8 2.8 96.1 89.2 27.1 27.7 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 29.4 31.0 31.8 3.0 96.0 90.4 27.7 28.4 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 24.8 26.5 25.7 2.7 96.1 89.4 22.9 23.6 24.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 30.2 31.7 31.0 2.6 94.4 87.4 28.2 28.9 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 29.7 30.8 30.8 2.4 92.3 86.3 28.1 28.7 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 29.6 31.4 31.6 3.1 97.1 91.4 27.8 28.5 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 29.4 31.0 29.5 2.7 95.9 89.1 27.6 28.3 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 30.4 31.6 29.7 2.2 92.0 84.8 28.4 29.2 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 30.2 31.7 28.8 2.6 95.5 89.4 28.3 29.0 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 29.7 30.8 30.3 2.3 92.1 85.0 27.9 28.6 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 31.1 32.1 30.0 2.1 90.9 84.3 29.3 30.0 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 24.3 26.0 26.8 2.7 96.0 88.9 22.4 23.1 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 29.8 31.3 31.7 2.8 95.2 89.3 27.9 28.6 29.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------