***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 34.7 24.7 72.1 44.8 36.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 28.4 35.8 24.5 66.8 40.4 34.2 30.4 43.7 59.3 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 25.2 36.1 24.2 67.3 40.9 34.3 29.5 44.5 62.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 28.5 44.5 25.1 70.3 42.8 35.0 35.1 52.5 73.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 24.6 35.3 24.0 66.1 40.7 33.7 29.4 43.2 60.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 29.2 43.6 35.4 79.0 47.0 40.3 31.3 46.4 64.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 22.6 31.1 25.2 69.8 41.8 35.4 24.7 37.6 52.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 45.5 57.9 26.2 67.3 40.6 35.5 49.6 68.3 90.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 23.3 33.6 24.2 64.7 39.9 33.1 28.0 42.4 59.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 36.0 45.8 27.4 64.4 38.0 33.3 41.4 57.1 75.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 19.9 30.6 21.0 65.7 42.2 35.0 23.0 37.7 56.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 25.4 38.6 20.6 68.7 44.7 37.2 27.5 44.5 65.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 20.1 30.7 25.7 73.1 46.3 39.2 22.2 33.2 46.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 35.0 41.0 28.7 61.2 33.8 30.3 40.2 59.1 81.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 15.7 26.4 23.9 76.6 47.7 38.0 16.4 28.1 43.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 19.0 28.1 23.3 69.5 43.8 36.8 21.3 32.3 45.8 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 30.3 36.0 24.0 64.2 39.2 34.0 31.4 44.0 58.8 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 34.1 41.7 33.0 64.6 34.9 32.4 39.9 55.9 75.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 30.1 38.1 23.9 64.5 38.9 33.1 32.6 48.6 68.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 35.3 40.8 35.6 69.8 37.3 34.9 37.9 49.4 62.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 21.9 33.7 23.0 68.1 43.2 34.8 26.4 39.3 55.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 32.5 38.7 24.0 62.5 37.7 32.5 35.1 48.3 63.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 27.1 33.8 23.7 62.1 36.9 31.4 31.0 43.8 58.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 29.2 36.8 28.8 64.0 36.2 32.3 34.1 49.1 67.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 25.3 39.3 29.4 71.7 42.2 34.8 30.9 46.7 65.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 21.3 33.8 21.5 77.6 49.5 41.3 22.9 34.0 47.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 25.7 41.2 29.6 73.6 44.1 36.4 30.0 48.1 70.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 24.0 36.3 23.9 73.2 45.4 36.9 27.0 40.1 56.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 52.0 59.8 34.2 66.9 34.6 32.8 58.5 74.9 92.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 25.4 35.1 24.8 69.0 41.9 35.2 27.9 41.9 59.2 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 na severu 0.6-0.7, na jugu 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------