***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 5.8 7.0 49.7 45.1 33.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.1 5.9 7.0 50.9 43.2 35.6 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 3.3 4.9 6.3 43.1 39.2 30.3 3.5 8.3 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 3.8 5.8 5.9 39.6 36.4 26.5 4.8 10.6 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 3.8 5.7 5.2 35.0 32.9 23.5 5.7 11.0 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 3.1 4.4 5.1 38.7 34.2 26.7 4.1 9.4 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.5 5.5 7.9 57.6 46.7 38.1 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 7.7 10.7 5.0 32.9 31.0 22.7 11.5 19.5 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 3.3 5.3 5.3 35.0 34.5 24.9 5.1 10.3 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 4.7 6.7 5.7 33.7 32.4 24.0 6.9 13.8 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 2.9 4.5 4.3 32.3 33.3 23.0 4.5 9.3 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 82 18 0 100 4.8 7.4 4.0 32.8 33.5 23.1 7.3 12.9 20.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 86 14 0 100 2.7 4.3 4.1 33.4 31.5 22.1 4.6 8.6 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 4.9 6.2 6.8 35.9 32.2 27.0 6.3 11.9 19.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 2.2 3.7 5.6 40.5 39.0 28.9 2.7 5.8 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 87 13 0 100 3.0 4.9 4.2 32.9 32.1 22.4 5.0 9.2 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.2 6.3 7.6 53.7 45.2 37.5 4.0 7.4 12.2 29 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 5.9 7.4 6.8 36.2 32.2 25.8 7.7 13.6 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 4.7 6.7 6.5 45.6 40.1 33.2 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 5.2 6.8 6.4 36.6 30.6 23.9 7.3 12.7 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 4.1 6.7 5.8 40.0 39.7 28.5 5.0 9.6 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 4.7 7.0 7.0 48.4 40.4 33.5 5.1 10.2 17.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 3.6 4.8 6.2 40.4 36.3 30.0 4.1 8.1 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 4.9 6.7 6.5 37.3 34.3 27.6 6.4 11.4 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 3.5 5.8 7.3 43.5 39.1 29.0 4.3 9.1 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 84 16 0 100 2.9 4.3 3.8 39.2 32.7 22.7 4.3 7.1 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 4.7 7.4 7.9 49.1 42.9 32.9 4.7 9.7 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 2.3 3.6 5.3 38.4 36.5 26.9 3.0 6.4 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 8.8 10.7 7.0 37.5 31.5 25.2 11.2 17.3 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.2 6.4 6.9 50.9 43.2 35.0 3.8 8.3 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------