***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 6.7 7.7 85.9 62.8 37.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.6 8.9 6.7 70.7 56.2 35.9 3.7 7.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.7 9.2 7.6 81.6 60.6 37.9 3.5 6.5 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 2.9 10.9 7.6 81.7 60.3 37.6 2.9 7.1 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.7 8.2 7.2 73.4 58.0 37.7 2.6 5.8 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.4 9.3 11.6 84.2 60.7 39.7 2.5 5.9 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.8 7.1 6.6 69.8 56.9 36.7 2.6 5.5 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 3.6 9.9 7.6 74.0 57.4 36.9 3.9 7.8 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 1.8 5.9 7.5 72.4 57.6 35.9 1.8 4.2 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 2.3 6.6 8.1 71.9 56.9 37.2 2.4 5.1 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 1.9 6.1 5.9 67.9 55.5 36.0 2.0 4.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 2.5 8.6 5.9 70.6 56.7 34.5 2.8 6.5 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 1.4 5.5 8.0 74.2 59.0 38.3 1.5 3.6 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 3.6 11.0 9.4 78.7 58.9 40.0 3.4 7.5 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.2 10.3 7.9 105.9 67.6 40.0 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 1.7 5.1 6.8 68.8 56.5 36.5 1.8 4.0 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 2.3 5.3 6.0 62.9 53.4 34.4 2.6 4.8 7.7 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 2.8 7.6 10.1 73.9 56.9 38.2 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 3.6 9.1 7.0 72.9 57.0 35.7 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 3.3 8.0 10.6 75.5 56.5 38.5 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 2.0 6.9 7.5 85.3 62.3 37.8 2.0 4.3 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 2.5 6.4 6.7 67.4 55.2 35.8 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.1 7.8 7.4 75.2 58.1 36.1 3.2 6.1 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 3.1 8.5 9.1 77.1 58.8 38.7 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.7 10.9 9.4 86.8 61.9 39.2 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 1.7 6.2 6.5 78.8 60.0 36.8 1.8 4.1 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.0 13.6 9.2 85.9 62.4 39.3 3.3 7.9 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 2.6 10.4 7.3 87.2 62.1 37.5 2.8 6.3 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 4.8 12.1 10.9 79.3 58.1 39.1 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.2 8.1 7.2 75.5 58.4 37.5 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------