***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 12.6 5.9 104.6 66.1 39.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 2.8 10.6 5.7 94.6 62.9 38.2 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 2.8 14.0 6.0 98.6 64.3 39.4 2.7 7.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.2 22.0 8.1 127.8 72.8 41.8 3.9 8.7 16.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 2.7 13.1 7.5 119.5 70.7 40.3 2.7 6.0 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.7 18.4 13.2 130.2 73.5 45.0 3.6 7.8 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 3.6 13.7 5.8 97.1 63.9 39.9 4.0 8.3 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 5.6 24.0 8.8 119.6 70.3 43.5 5.7 11.7 20.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 2.2 13.4 7.0 108.3 67.8 39.8 2.3 6.1 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 3.9 17.8 8.5 107.3 66.9 41.8 3.5 8.6 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 2.8 15.8 7.1 132.4 73.7 41.5 2.7 6.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 2.6 19.9 7.2 139.8 75.2 41.0 2.6 6.6 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 2.1 13.7 9.3 142.6 76.0 43.2 2.4 5.1 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 4.4 14.3 6.6 78.5 56.4 36.4 4.6 10.8 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.8 15.3 7.7 145.5 76.6 43.8 2.4 5.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.1 11.1 8.4 143.8 76.2 43.0 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 4.8 15.8 5.8 92.1 62.7 39.4 4.7 10.0 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.4 16.7 9.5 91.7 61.2 40.7 4.6 10.3 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 3.7 14.0 5.5 90.0 61.5 36.8 3.9 8.9 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.4 13.6 11.7 105.6 66.1 45.7 4.2 8.0 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.8 15.4 6.1 110.7 68.1 39.8 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 5.3 15.3 5.5 83.9 59.9 37.7 5.2 10.7 18.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 3.1 11.7 5.3 83.6 59.4 35.6 3.4 8.0 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.2 14.3 7.5 88.7 60.4 38.5 3.8 9.0 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.2 17.5 8.1 114.0 69.1 42.2 3.8 8.2 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 3.2 18.1 7.5 141.6 75.8 42.6 3.5 7.3 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.8 15.5 7.5 110.0 67.7 42.0 3.3 7.7 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 3.8 21.3 8.1 142.6 76.0 43.2 3.7 8.1 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.2 22.2 9.8 93.7 61.9 42.4 7.6 14.9 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 3.8 14.5 5.8 97.1 63.8 39.1 4.1 8.8 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------