***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 9999.0 10.8 4.0 73.1 57.0 34.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 4.3 11.9 5.0 68.8 56.8 35.5 4.3 9.2 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 3.3 9.8 4.4 72.7 57.8 35.0 3.7 7.4 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 3.1 8.3 3.6 68.0 53.4 31.8 3.3 7.2 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 3.0 9.2 4.0 77.0 57.8 32.6 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 3.1 9.3 5.5 72.2 57.0 34.4 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 3.0 8.6 4.9 69.7 55.7 34.5 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 3.6 12.3 4.8 78.8 57.1 33.8 4.0 9.2 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 3.4 10.5 4.4 80.6 59.8 32.6 3.9 7.6 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 3.9 12.1 5.1 79.3 58.3 33.3 4.8 9.2 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 2.3 8.6 3.8 79.8 57.8 31.1 2.7 6.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 2.6 8.8 3.6 80.8 58.2 33.0 2.8 6.4 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.6 7.9 4.2 77.9 58.0 33.4 2.7 5.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 2.3 10.4 5.9 78.0 58.9 35.7 2.6 6.8 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 2.0 4.7 2.7 59.3 48.4 27.6 2.2 5.0 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 3.0 8.9 3.9 76.6 57.2 32.3 3.5 6.9 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.9 9.9 4.6 62.2 54.1 35.4 4.2 8.5 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 3.0 10.8 6.5 79.9 58.8 35.8 3.6 7.8 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.7 11.4 4.9 69.7 57.6 35.6 3.7 8.4 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 4.5 10.9 6.9 80.6 57.2 37.3 5.2 8.9 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 2.3 8.0 3.6 72.4 56.6 31.0 2.7 6.0 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 3.0 7.9 4.9 64.7 55.7 36.8 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 2.4 9.0 4.8 72.1 58.5 35.2 2.6 6.2 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 3.3 10.1 5.7 78.1 58.9 35.5 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 2.4 7.9 4.6 72.5 55.7 34.0 2.4 6.1 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.5 9.7 3.6 83.4 59.7 35.5 3.7 7.0 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 2.9 10.7 5.0 76.4 58.1 35.0 3.2 7.7 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 2.4 6.4 3.3 67.0 52.2 29.7 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 4.4 14.8 6.5 78.5 56.9 35.1 5.6 11.5 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 3.1 8.7 4.9 71.2 57.7 35.7 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------