***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 16.7 16.5 19.6 0.8 65.7 62.7 15.1 15.9 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 16.7 16.7 19.8 1.0 68.3 64.8 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 18.8 18.6 19.8 0.7 64.8 62.2 17.1 17.9 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 13.9 14.1 17.0 0.4 58.1 57.3 12.6 13.6 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.3 16.6 0.1 52.9 52.8 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 13.4 13.5 14.8 0.3 57.5 56.3 12.6 13.2 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 17.1 17.1 20.0 1.0 69.6 65.7 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.2 14.3 0.1 52.4 52.4 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.7 16.7 0.1 52.5 52.3 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.5 15.2 0.1 52.0 51.9 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.3 16.1 0.2 54.2 53.7 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.6 15.2 0.2 54.7 54.0 12.7 13.4 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.6 14.5 0.2 54.2 53.4 13.8 14.4 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.5 16.9 0.4 58.7 57.6 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 17.1 17.4 18.5 0.5 62.3 60.9 16.0 16.8 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.0 15.6 0.2 55.9 54.9 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 17.5 17.5 19.7 1.1 69.8 65.6 16.0 16.7 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.1 14.4 0.2 55.2 54.5 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 16.6 16.6 19.6 0.8 66.6 63.6 15.1 15.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 10.2 10.0 12.0 0.0 51.3 51.4 9.3 9.9 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 15.6 15.6 18.3 0.3 56.1 55.2 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 16.3 16.2 19.4 0.9 67.0 63.5 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.9 19.3 0.7 64.6 62.2 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.4 16.7 0.4 59.8 58.3 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.8 17.9 0.5 60.7 59.0 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 14.6 14.8 14.5 0.4 59.0 57.7 13.8 14.4 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 15.5 16.0 18.8 0.7 64.3 61.6 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 14.6 14.7 17.3 0.3 57.3 56.5 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.4 13.7 0.1 53.5 53.1 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 16.9 16.9 19.9 0.9 67.7 64.4 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------