***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 17.1 17.3 20.2 1.0 71.9 67.2 15.3 16.2 17.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 17.1 17.7 20.4 1.4 77.7 71.8 15.1 16.1 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 19.2 19.5 20.4 1.1 72.9 67.7 17.4 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 14.8 14.9 17.6 0.9 70.7 66.5 12.8 13.8 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 15.0 15.5 17.1 0.6 64.3 61.6 13.9 14.7 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.9 14.3 15.3 0.6 65.5 62.9 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 17.4 17.9 20.6 1.5 78.6 72.4 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 9.7 10.0 14.8 0.5 63.0 60.2 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.5 17.2 0.5 63.1 60.6 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.3 15.6 0.5 62.2 59.7 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 15.7 16.2 16.6 0.6 65.8 62.5 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.9 14.2 15.6 0.5 64.6 61.2 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.2 14.9 0.4 60.7 58.3 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 16.6 17.1 17.4 0.7 65.9 62.6 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 18.0 18.3 19.0 1.0 74.0 69.2 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.9 16.0 0.6 65.6 62.3 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 17.8 18.3 20.3 1.4 78.3 72.0 16.0 16.8 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.7 14.8 0.5 64.1 61.1 13.3 14.0 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 17.0 17.4 20.3 1.3 76.6 70.7 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 10.4 10.7 12.4 0.5 63.3 60.7 9.4 10.1 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.4 18.8 0.6 64.4 61.7 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 16.6 17.1 20.1 1.3 77.7 71.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 16.5 16.8 20.0 1.2 74.5 68.8 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 16.9 16.9 17.2 0.7 67.1 63.5 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 16.3 16.8 18.5 0.8 66.7 63.4 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 15.5 15.5 14.9 0.7 68.0 64.0 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 17.1 17.3 19.3 1.0 70.3 66.2 15.0 16.1 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 15.7 15.8 17.9 0.9 71.1 66.9 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 13.7 14.0 14.2 0.5 63.4 60.7 12.5 13.4 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 17.3 17.8 20.6 1.3 76.7 70.8 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------