***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 15.9 16.1 19.0 0.4 62.3 60.6 15.2 15.7 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 16.3 16.4 19.1 0.6 69.5 67.0 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 17.9 18.1 19.2 0.4 62.7 61.1 17.2 17.7 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 13.4 13.4 16.5 0.1 55.5 54.9 12.7 13.2 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 14.3 14.1 16.4 -0.1 48.1 48.4 13.5 14.2 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.2 14.2 0.1 54.2 54.0 12.7 13.1 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 16.6 16.7 19.3 0.7 71.3 68.5 15.4 16.0 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.6 13.8 -0.1 46.7 47.5 8.2 8.7 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 15.6 15.4 16.5 0.0 50.5 50.4 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.2 14.8 0.0 48.7 49.0 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.0 15.9 0.0 49.2 49.5 14.5 15.0 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.0 14.7 -0.1 46.0 47.0 12.6 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.1 14.4 -0.1 45.2 46.4 13.8 14.3 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 16.1 16.3 16.6 0.3 59.6 58.6 15.5 16.0 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 16.8 17.1 18.1 0.3 63.2 61.6 16.1 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.6 15.3 0.0 48.9 49.3 15.1 15.6 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 17.1 17.3 19.0 0.8 74.2 71.1 16.0 16.5 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.7 14.1 0.1 52.5 52.2 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 47 53 100 16.2 16.2 19.0 0.5 66.9 64.8 15.2 15.7 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.4 11.8 -0.1 44.1 45.2 9.1 9.6 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 15.4 15.3 17.9 0.1 52.8 52.5 14.7 15.3 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 15.9 16.0 18.9 0.6 70.5 67.9 14.8 15.4 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 46 54 100 15.6 15.6 18.8 0.5 65.3 63.4 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 15.9 16.1 16.5 0.3 59.6 58.5 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.4 17.5 0.1 52.8 52.5 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.3 14.1 0.1 53.9 53.4 13.8 14.2 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 15.5 15.7 18.2 0.3 60.3 59.0 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 14.5 14.5 16.8 0.2 56.0 55.3 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.0 12.8 13.4 0.0 49.3 49.6 12.3 12.8 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 16.6 16.6 19.2 0.5 66.8 64.6 15.4 16.0 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------