***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 28.5 27.1 27.9 -0.9 37.3 38.2 26.8 28.0 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 28.4 27.4 28.2 -0.7 40.7 41.2 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 28.4 26.8 27.7 -1.2 34.5 35.5 26.6 27.9 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 19.2 19.3 24.5 -1.5 28.2 29.7 19.7 21.0 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 26.2 26.3 25.3 -1.8 26.0 27.4 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 25.3 25.4 22.8 -1.7 25.5 27.4 25.9 27.1 28.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 28.4 27.7 28.5 -0.4 44.7 45.0 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 14.4 14.5 22.9 -1.8 25.7 27.3 15.0 16.2 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 26.2 26.4 26.4 -1.5 29.4 30.7 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 25.8 25.9 24.1 -1.8 26.7 28.1 26.4 27.6 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 25.8 26.0 25.5 -1.9 25.6 27.1 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 25.3 25.4 24.3 -1.7 26.7 28.4 25.9 27.1 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 26.4 26.5 25.0 -1.7 26.4 28.2 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 28.0 26.7 26.2 -1.0 36.6 37.5 26.5 27.6 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 29.5 28.0 27.7 -1.0 34.8 35.8 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 27.0 27.1 25.0 -1.7 26.5 28.2 27.6 28.9 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 28.0 27.4 28.2 -0.2 46.7 46.8 26.5 27.6 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 25.0 25.2 23.3 -1.6 29.4 30.6 25.5 26.7 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 28.0 26.7 27.9 -0.9 38.0 38.8 26.3 27.5 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 20.7 20.8 21.0 -1.7 26.6 28.2 21.3 22.5 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 26.2 26.4 27.3 -1.5 30.0 31.2 26.7 27.9 29.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 28.3 27.6 27.9 -0.4 44.3 44.6 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 28.1 27.0 27.8 -0.8 39.0 39.7 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 25.9 26.1 25.9 -1.3 32.8 33.9 26.1 27.2 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 26.8 26.9 26.4 -1.3 31.9 33.1 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 26.3 26.4 23.7 -1.7 25.9 27.8 26.9 28.0 28.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 28.1 26.8 27.3 -0.9 37.1 38.0 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 27.2 27.4 25.6 -1.5 28.4 29.9 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 20.3 20.5 22.5 -1.6 29.1 30.5 20.8 22.0 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 28.2 26.9 28.1 -0.9 38.1 38.8 26.5 27.8 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------