***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 29.4 29.1 29.6 0.1 51.9 52.1 27.5 29.0 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 29.3 29.5 30.0 0.5 56.5 55.9 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 29.5 28.8 29.5 -0.2 48.0 48.6 27.4 29.0 30.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 22.9 21.4 26.4 -0.8 39.3 41.0 20.8 22.3 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 30.3 28.4 26.8 -1.1 35.6 37.6 28.1 29.7 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 26.3 26.7 23.9 -1.3 31.0 33.4 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 29.3 29.8 30.3 0.7 60.4 59.2 27.4 28.9 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 15.3 15.6 24.2 -1.4 30.6 32.9 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 29.6 27.9 27.4 -0.9 37.7 39.4 27.5 29.0 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 29.4 27.4 25.3 -1.2 34.0 35.8 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 27.3 27.8 26.7 -1.2 34.7 36.7 27.6 29.2 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 26.2 26.7 25.6 -1.3 32.2 34.6 26.7 28.2 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 27.4 27.9 25.7 -1.4 31.6 34.1 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 29.1 28.0 27.1 -0.6 41.6 42.7 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 30.7 29.9 28.7 -0.2 46.4 47.5 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 28.3 28.9 26.2 -1.2 34.1 36.3 28.8 30.3 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 28.7 29.2 30.1 0.8 60.7 59.2 26.8 28.3 29.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.5 26.7 24.6 -1.1 35.0 36.6 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 28.9 28.7 29.8 0.2 53.3 53.1 27.0 28.4 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 21.4 21.6 22.0 -1.6 29.1 31.3 22.0 23.5 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 29.5 28.2 28.5 -0.7 40.2 41.7 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 29.2 29.4 29.6 0.4 56.4 55.6 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 29.1 28.8 29.5 0.1 51.8 51.9 27.1 28.6 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 28.9 27.6 27.0 -0.7 40.0 41.3 27.0 28.4 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 29.8 28.8 27.8 -0.5 43.8 45.1 27.8 29.3 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 27.4 27.9 25.3 -1.2 32.6 34.9 27.9 29.2 30.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 29.2 28.7 28.8 0.1 50.9 51.2 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 30.7 29.4 27.1 -0.8 39.1 40.9 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 21.4 21.7 23.6 -1.3 33.3 35.1 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 29.2 29.1 29.9 0.3 54.2 54.0 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------